Top 10 Trends
1. football is becoming way too analytical.
Too much focus on meaningless stats. Some have value but the evaluations aren't always appropriate based on the talent level and jobs surrounding certain players. Especially DB's where certain players are always matched against #1 WR. Going to have worse stats when you cover the best.
2. Teams with good qbs win more than others.
You can be a playoff team but you can't be a Super Bowl Team without above average QB play. Teams no longer have those dominating defenses which carry a team with a young/inefficient QB.
I would argue that 9 teams can win it based on their QB play. Some can make the playoffs but won't win the big one.
3 Power Shift
Good players in rookie deals now have power and can negotiate before their contract is up. Players are demanded trades that 5 years ago would never happen. WR want to get paid who are under contract and then ask out. What happened to the franchise tag. That wasn't the case in years past. Players can also dictate how they will be used like Deebo Samuel. Curious to see how many designed runs some of these QB's will now have. Murray, Jackson, Jones and the like.
4. QB Play
“I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback in this league,” Ben Holmes-Lions GM.
Teams are giving up on Qbs way too early. 1st year is the learning year, Year 2 is the make it or break it year. If you can't dominate after year 2, you're out! Slow down people.
5. Drafting QB's
Teams are drafting inaccurate qb's early in the draft hoping they will be the next Josh Allen. It used to be if you were inaccurate your stock would fall. Now every qb coach is a guru who can fix an inaccurate qb. Don't reach for a qb.
2021 was the year of inaccurate qb's being drafted. Lets see how Zach Wilson, Fields, and Trey Lance do in 2022. Trevor Lawrence will be an all pro. Sorry Jets fans, you should have tanked.
6. WR are getting paid stupid money.
Thank Christian Kirk and the Jaguars for that. This is the reason Tyreek Hill got traded and Devontae Adams didn't resign. Both lost a real shot at the Super Bowl.This led to #7. They are like pitchers that throw every 5th day.
7. Overdrafting WR
Teams went reaching in the draft. 2022 was the year in which everyone reached for WR because of the Adams, Hill and Kirk fiasco. Better draft them before you have to pay them!
Looking back at 2022
Rd 1 #9. Drake London 72 rec for 866 yards 12 yards per catch 4 td solid
Rd 1 #1 Garrett Wilson 83 rec 1113 yards 13 yards per catch 4td solid
Rd 1 # 11chris olave 72 1042 14.5 4 td solid
Rd 1 #12 Jameson Williams 1 rec 41 yards injured
Rd 1 #16 Jahan datsan 35 rec 523 yard 14.9 ypc below average
Rd 1 #18 Treylon Burks 33 444 13.5 ypc below average
The top 3 were excellent/ The next 3 were below average.
In the 2nd round,
Watson Packers Solid
Robinson Giants Below average
Metchie and Thorton Texans non factors
Pickens, solid
pierce solid
sky moore 22 for 250 below average
8. Salary Cap
The salary cap is just a term that is used. There isn't really a hard cap. Teams are finnagiling the salary cap and creating disparity. Vodiable contracts and big bonuses spread over 5 years are becoming a big thing in the NFL Certain teams are using the cap as an excuse not to spend money. Anyone can reload and be a contender every year. Eagles, Dolphins, Rams, Steelers, Chiefs and Bucs all find a way!
9. Offensive Lineman
Offensive lineman are taking longer to develop because of the offseason hitting rules. They also don't get into a 3 point stance so it's like training a qb from scratch.
10. x and o's
The Rpo and jet sweep aspects at the high school level are more and more evident in the pro game. Some zone reads with the running qbs. Teams are getting away from 2 back and 21 personnel and living in an 11 and 12 world. On defense, we are seeing more 3 safety looks, cover 2 hole concepts and a different way of calling things.