Howie "Houdini" Roseman, the man that built the Eagles

(Getty Images)

The Eagles are built to win. They have a very aggressive philosophy and have spent over 100 million dollars on contracts in signing bonuses and converted bonuses. They have manipulated the salary cap to win now and thus are playing in a Super Bowl. Not many owners will sign off on the $ Howie Roseman  has spent and  Jeffrey Lurie is a great owner for doing do. Make no mistake, he wants to win football games.

 Let's look at 13 contracts that Howie Houdini has done using his brilliant cap skills.

He uses signing bonuses and restructure bonuses to get players under contract and will then potentially renegotiate with them when the time comes to get the numbers under the cap. This is done with prorated bonuses and restructured salaries and is the way to go in todays NFL.

Let's look at the amount of $ in signing bonuses and restructure  will be allocated for each year just in bonuses alone for players who probably won't be playing or under contract that year. 

 But understand this, if a player does get cut and let's say has 20 million in bonuses left for 23-25, that money is applied to the 2023 cap. So, there is some negotiating that can be done. 

For example, Darius Slay is cut in 2023 because he has a 17 million dollar base. It will still be a 21 million dollar cap hit applied to the 2023 season. That is why it would be advantageous to try to renegotiate some of the salary into a signing bonus. There is some risk involved. 

The following figures are in millions!

                          2023        2024        2025      2026          2027

Slay                    5.3            5.3         5.3            3.1            -                   Note 26 mil cap hit in 23

Hargrave            4.8            4.8         3.5             -               -

Kelce                    8               4            4             2              -                    Probably retiring

Graham               -                 5.6          3.2          1.2         - 

Mailata                 -                -              4               2          -

Semalu              2.8             2.1          1.5           900k         -

Reddick                 -               -             5.6            5.6           2.5                

Goedert                -               -         -                     3.5          2.7

Sweat                   -            -                4.7             2.7           2.1

Bradberry        1.2           1.2             1.2              1.2   

maddux               -              -             2.5             1.5          1.0

Cox                    -             2.5              2.5            2.5  

Barnett                -            1.9             1.9             1.9           1.3 

Total                22.1          27.4           39.7          26.3          9.6 

Lets take a closer look:

Example #1 Darius Slay

In 2022, Darius Slay will count 9.7 million towards the salary cap. Thats a pretty good contract for the Eagles. That is because he will cost the Eagles down the road towards the cap.

How was it done: Darius was given 28 million the day he signed. That bonus was spread over 5 years. 

His 2023 contract is 17 million base with a 26 million cap hit. In 2024, his contract is voided but his bonus will count as follows in 2024-2026. Chances are they will restructure this offseason or he will be released.

Bonus applied to the cap  

2024  5.3 million

2025 5.3 million

2026 3.0 million 

Example #2 Javon Hargraves

Javon Hargraves deal is voidable next season. But, he has a 12 million cap hit in 2023-2025 due to his signing bonus and restructure deal. If cut in 2023

He has a cap hit as follows because of his big signing bonus and restructure

2023 4.7 mil

2024 4.7 mil

2025 2.3 mil

His cap hit is 11 million in 2023 because he isn't under contract if released before 6/1.

Example #3 James Bradberry

James made a ridiculous 2.2 cap hit this year. But, he will be paid the next 4 years. The Eagles stole him and got him for a ridiculous price.

2022 cap hit 2.2 million 

He signed a voidable deal with signing bonuses that count 1.2 million per year in 2023-2026 as he was paid 7 million up front 

You get the idea and how the genius does it! Kudos to Howie Roseman on a job well done!.

Top 10 nfl trends going into 2022

Top 10 Trends

1. football is becoming way too analytical. 

Too much focus on meaningless stats. Some have value but the evaluations aren't always appropriate based on the talent level and jobs surrounding certain players. Especially DB's where certain players are always matched against  #1 WR. Going to have worse stats when you cover the best. 

2. Teams with good qbs win more than others. 

You can be a playoff team but you can't be a Super Bowl Team without above average QB play. Teams no longer have those dominating defenses which carry a team with a young/inefficient QB.

I would argue that 9 teams can win it based on their QB play. Some can make the playoffs but won't win the big one. 

3 Power  Shift 
Good players in rookie deals now have power and can negotiate before their contract is up. Players are demanded trades that 5 years ago would never happen. WR want to get paid who are under contract and then ask out. What happened to the franchise tag. That wasn't the case in years past. Players can also dictate how they will be used like Deebo Samuel. Curious to see how many designed runs some of these QB's will now have. Murray, Jackson, Jones and the like. 

4. QB Play 

“I think it’s a lot easier to get worse at quarterback than to get better at quarterback in this league,” Ben Holmes-Lions GM. 

Teams are giving up on Qbs way too early. 1st year is the learning year, Year 2 is the make it or break it year. If you can't dominate after year 2, you're out! Slow down people.

5. Drafting QB's 

 Teams are drafting inaccurate qb's early in the draft hoping they will be the next Josh Allen. It used to be if you were inaccurate your stock would fall. Now every qb coach is a guru who can fix an inaccurate qb. Don't reach for a qb.

2021 was the year of inaccurate qb's being drafted. Lets see how Zach Wilson, Fields, and Trey Lance do in 2022. Trevor Lawrence will be an all pro. Sorry Jets fans, you should have tanked.

6. WR are getting paid stupid money. 
Thank Christian Kirk and the Jaguars for that. This is the reason Tyreek Hill got traded and Devontae Adams didn't resign. Both lost a real shot at the Super Bowl.This led to #7. They are like pitchers that throw every 5th day. 

7. Overdrafting WR

Teams went reaching in the draft. 2022 was the year in which everyone reached for WR because of the Adams, Hill and Kirk fiasco. Better draft them before you have to pay them!

Looking back at 2022 

Rd 1 #9. Drake London         72 rec for 866 yards  12 yards per catch 4 td          solid

Rd 1 #1 Garrett Wilson       83 rec   1113 yards   13 yards per catch  4td             solid

Rd 1 # 11chris olave             72         1042          14.5      4 td                               solid

Rd 1 #12  Jameson Williams 1 rec      41 yards                                                    injured

Rd 1  #16  Jahan datsan           35 rec    523 yard   14.9 ypc                              below average

Rd 1  #18   Treylon Burks         33         444           13.5 ypc                              below average

The top 3 were excellent/ The next 3 were below average.

In the 2nd round,

Watson Packers                         Solid

Robinson Giants                        Below average

Metchie and Thorton Texans     non factors

Pickens,                                      solid

pierce                                         solid

sky moore 22 for 250                 below average

8. Salary Cap
The salary cap is just a term that is used. There isn't really a hard cap.  Teams are finnagiling the salary cap and creating disparity. Vodiable contracts and big bonuses spread over 5 years are becoming a big thing in the NFL Certain teams are using the cap  as an excuse not to spend money. Anyone can reload and be a contender every year. Eagles, Dolphins, Rams, Steelers, Chiefs and Bucs all find a way! 

9. Offensive Lineman

Offensive lineman are taking longer to develop because of the offseason hitting rules. They also don't get into a 3 point stance so it's like training a qb from scratch. 

10. x and o's
The Rpo and jet sweep aspects at the high school level are more and more evident in the pro game. Some zone reads with the running qbs.  Teams are getting away from 2 back and 21 personnel and living in an 11 and 12 world. On defense, we are seeing more 3 safety looks, cover 2 hole concepts and a different way of calling things. 

Jets 2022 Offensive Line and Tight End Targets in Free Agency

 The Jets went out and got their franchise QB in 2021. They also got some key pieces in the draft with Elijah Moore and Michael Carter. There is plenty of excitement moving forward due to this young talented group and 4 draft picks in the top 2 rounds in the 2022 draft. They also have WR Corey Davis and a decent TE in Ryan Griffin. 

On offense, the Jets are rank 15th in passing yards and 28th in completion percentage. The offensive line stats are deceiving because of the situation of having a rookie qb. Also, the Jets are  last in rushing attempts on the year, which is shocking with a rookie QB.  But they are tied  for 11th in rushing yards per carry at 4.4. It's no secret that their lack of attempts hurt their statistical numbers and the team is a much better when they run the football on a consistent basis.. Even though they are last in attempts, they are 26th in yards. So, if they rushed 8-10 more times a game, they would probably be around the middle of the pack in rushing. 

They were also sacked 2.9 times per game which is  26th in the league. But, again that stat is deceiving because of several factors:

1. Having a rookie qb and making poor decisions

2. Some of those are on naked boots which is no one's faults up front.

3. Some were a result of the rb.

4. The Jets get a ton of 5 man pressures because they have a rookie qb.

5. They lead the league in passing attempts. More passing attempts=more sacks

6. They don't run the ball nearly enough, last in rushing attempts

My point is that you shouldn't get caught up in the numbers. They were better than what people thought. 

Moving Forward

Now they have to address some pieces to really take the next step as a program. One of the positions they have to address is the offensive line and tight end. 

The biggest question marks on the offensive line are the following:

1. Who plays right guard?

2. Do they bring Moses back or kick Fant back to right tackle?

3. Who plays center? Do they restructure McGovern  or go to a different option either through the draft or free agency?

What will the plan be. I happen to like Moses and think he should be brought back? If not, do you go after a veteran back up. Would you bring him back and move Becton to guard. Would it be more cost effective?

Imagine an offensive line  of:

Fant-Becton- Mcgovern-Tucker-Moses. I 'm in the minority about moving Becton to guard but that would be a really impressive offensive line. 

But let's dive a little deeper into the options:

Last year's starters.

LT/RT- George Fant-George moved from the right side to the left side after Mekai Becton went down and played really well over there. Arguably, he played better than Becton and graded out quite weil in both the run and pass game. 

LT-Mekai Becton is going to play somewhere next year. Tremendous run blocker with some issues handling speed rushers. He will be back but do you consider moving him to guard? Probably not, but it wouldn't be the worst move in the world. 

LG Aligah Vera-Tucker- Vera Tucker did a real nice job in the run game as a rookie and will be a solid player for years to come. He is excellent in the zone scheme and playside in the gap counter schemes. The areas he can improve upon is pass protection and his trap, counter blocking technique. Thought he struggled at times in those 2 areas. The nice thing about him is he can kick over to right guard if they sign a left guard.

C-Connor Mcgovern- Connor is a good football player that fans seem to underestimate his ability. I don't think he is nearly the problem they make him out to be. To me, he is a top 10 center and a player I would want on my football team. That being said, he does have a huge contract but that can be converted into a 2 year deal with a nice signing bonus, thus giving the Jets more cap flexilbilty.

RG- Laurent Devarney-Tardiff - Tardiff was a nice pickup and great story as he has done a tremendous amount for the community. But in reality there are better answers to play guard. They could really benefit from him coming back in a reserve role but I think they need to go in another direction at starting right guard.

RT- Morgan Moses- Morgan Moses was a good addition and is a very solid right tackle. He has only let up 3 sacks and is a very solid pro. 

Backups

Dan Feeney, Greg Van Roten, Connor McDermott and Isaiah Wilson were some of the key backups on 2021.  I would expect Feeney back, especially for the excitement of Islander games.

Tight End

The Jets 2 tight ends were more run blockers and neither was a top tight end in receptions in 2021. Griffin was #30 in receptions. This an area in which the Jets would like to get a quality receiving te in 2022. 

TE- Tyler Kroft- Had a good year and is a very solid run blocker. Was adequate in the passing game but really not a dynamic wr. 

TE- Ryan Griffin- Not the run blocker that Kroft is but a little more versatile in the pass game.

TE-Trevon Wesco- A one dimensional tight end/full back who givves them some versatility. 

2022 definite returners

Fant, Becton and Tucker will be back and it gives the Jets some flexibility.  Fant could be restructured but I wouldn't mess around with him too much. It may cost you more money. 

Possible Returners

C- Mcgovern is a 9 million dollar savings if cut. The Jets could restructure him give him a 2 year deal and bring him back. Throw him a signing bonus and  maybe a 2 year 12 million dollar deal. I think he's a solid player and worth the investment.

RT Morgan Moses-Here's where it gets interesting. I like Moses and think he would be worth bringing back. But you aren't going to get him for the bargain basement price you got him at last year. Now do you resign him and give yourself some more flexibility with 3 tackles. 

TE-Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffith are both free agents. What direction do you want to go there. I coould see them bringing one back and then searching for the more dynamic option in free agency.

Free Agency Options

Let's look at some of the free agent options for the Jets at both tight end ,center and guard, the  positions you can see the Jets possibly bringing in thru free agency.

#1 Guard

I don't think the Jets need to focus on a left or right guard because of Vera-Tucker's versatility.He played right guard at USC in his earlier years. People may disagree with me on that but I want the best available guard there.

Below are 9 guys who would be great additions to the Jets offensive line. All are clearly better than what the jets have now. I would be surprised if they don't go after a guard in free agency only because of the depth in free agency at the position.

1. Brandon Scherf  wft     A great player who will be one of the best guards on the market.    He won't be franchised again.

2. Connor Williams cowboys A player who may be franchised but I can see hitting the market because of the cowboys cap issues.

3. James Daniels  Bears    Really came into his own this year after moving around over the years. Is he good enought to be tagged or will he hit the open market.

4.  Austin Corbett Rams    Corbett is really good. Has some good years ahead of him.Can play center or guard which is great for versatility purposes. Do the Rams franchise him or Darious Williams-CB?

5. Andy Norwell Jaguars    A great vet who doesn't seem to have lost a step.   

6. Laken Tomlinson 49ers I think Saleh knows how good he is.

7. Mark Glowinski Colts Mark is a heck of a guard. Could get the franchise tag.

8. Quinton Spain  Bengals Quinton is a very good guard and excellent run blocker. Definitely a great run blocker

9. Patrick Mekari Ravens   A restricted free agent so I don't see the Ravens letting him go but you never know.

#2 Center

The only players in the same class as McGovern are:

Ryan jensen    Bucs       

Brian Allen      Rams

Brad Bozeman  Ravens

These are the only 3 who would be worth replacing McGovern with. Are you going to get them for under $9 milllion per year. These guys are going to command $10 million plus per year so maybe trying to lure Mcgovern back may be a better option.

Other options who aren't the players Mcgovern are and I put in the avearge range include: Ethan Pocic Seahawks

Matt Paradis   Panthers

Patrick lucas packers 

Max  garcia Cardinals    Garcia intrigues me because he can play center/guard, which in today's NFL is a commodity

 

The options are McGovern, one of the players above or drafting a center in the 2nd round. That's how it will play out.

#3 TE

The Jets have 2 free agent tight ends. Both are good blockers and I can see 1 being brought back. Both Griffin and Kroft are solid pros.  Whether they attack the position in free agency or the draft remains to be seen but I can see them signing 1 tight end  and drafting another in round 2 or 3. They also have Kenny Yeboah so will see their thoughts on him. Either way they need two tight ends. 

Here's where it gets interesting in free agency. The tight end class is not very deep. The best tight end is Mike Gesicki. I will be shocked if Gisecki hits the open market. I anticipate him being franchised. But if he gets his wish and he's classified as a wr, he may hit the market because that would cost the Dolphins some $$$. Keep an eye on that. 

That leaves the following:

1. Dalton Shultz cowboys       69 receptions, 733 yards,10.6 ypc Will be available because the Cowboys will mostly franchise Gregory, Williams or Kearse. 

2. Zach Ertz- Cardinals 60 receptions , 638 yards 10.6 ypc Great veteran who has a few years in the tank,

3.Tyler Conklin   min             54 receptions 540 yards 10 ypc He may be the best one of the group,has great upside and is a good route runner. Keep an eye on him but I don't see the Vikings franchising anyone else. HE would be the franchise tag recipient as I see it.

4. CJ Uzomah   bengals       45 receptions ,461 yards 10. 2 ypc Good veteran who may be a nice security blanket for a young qb.

5. David njoku     Browns 30 receptions , 436 yards 14.5 ypc . Njoku is a wr who plays tight end and that's an intriguing player because you can split him out and force some 1x1 matchups on the perimeter. Not an inline tight end but would be a great off the ball option.

         

6. Ricky Seals-Jones   wft A converted wr who has even more room to grow. He adds to his body, he may be an even better tight end in 2022. He's a guy to keep your eyes on.He had 29 catches for 263 yards in 2021.  

7 Robert Tonyan packers     Tonyan was coming into his own before getting injured in 2021. May be a 1 year prove it candidate as Joe Douglas loves.

8 Mo Cox Colts. Mo Cox could be a very solid addition, especially in the run game. He's just a good football player.

Again, this isn't a tremendous free agent class so expect the Jets to draft a tight end.

All in all, the offensive line and tight end positions need to be addressed. 'm curious to see how it plays out.

I hope you enjoyed this article and my thoughts on the offensive line and tight end position.

Hello Russell Wilson- Make The Seattle Seahawks Great Again!

 Russell Wilson threw for 400 yards , 40 td's and 13 interceptions in 2020 and did some outstanding things with limited help from his offensive line throughout the season. He played well at times and is still an elite qb. That being said the Seahawks have to get better and protect their best player. 

He is on pace to be the most sacked qb in the NFL and may pass Brett Favre in that category. He was sacked 48 times in 2020, but more alarming was the amount of hits he took. Russell Wilson has been sacked 394 times in 9 seasons. That is a very high number for an elite qb and they are averaging 43.77 per year.

What happened this year was he got happy feet with all the pressure and starting getting away from his reads and progressions. He really struggled in that area and it caused him to look to run or should I say escape more. That really hurt them in the passing game. 

 So, understandably he is frustrated and the Seahawks need to get him the help he needs. One solution is to run the ball more, but you also need to be effective when running the ball. The 2 go hand in hand, just ask Bears fans! 

In 3 Rams games this year, he was sacked or hit a whopping 41 times. That is a very high rate and unacceptable for an elite qb. You can see my whole analysis of that 3 game series below:

https://coachkoufootball.blogspot.com/2020/11/how-rams-shutdown-seahawks-offense-with.html

The beauty of the Hawks roster  is the positions they need can be fit into the salary cap because I don't think they are extensively high paying positions based on the players available. The Seahawks made some moves and cut Dunlap and Greg Olsen  already, a 14 million savings. They are currently about 21 million under but can put themselves 47 million under. 

Here's 3 other saving moves:

3 contracts that could be restructured are:

Russell Wilson- Put your money where your mouth is. You are making 19 million in 2021. This could easily be restructured by giving him a 1 year extension in 2024 for lets say 2 year 80 million with a 30 million signing bonus. You think thats alot but if you give that to him and make his salary 1 , 1 million dollars that would split up the bonus of 30 million  over 5 years , it give the Hawks great flexibility. That would be a 12 million dollar savings year 1. 

        2021 1 million salary (3o million paid in bonus)

        2022  19 million

        2023  22 million

        2024   25 million

       2025   25 million

#2 person in the list that  you need to restructure Wagner. That is a big deal. He could save you about 10 million dollars. How? He is due 29 million, 13 million this year. If you gave him another year extension with lets say a 2 year extension with a 15 million signing bonus. That would be broken over 21-22-23. Give him a 1 million contract this year and everybody wins. That would save the Hawks about 8 million this year

Tyler Locket:

Give him a 2 year extension at 24million with lets say 12 million signing bonus and  5 million guaranteed in 22:

that would mean 2021- salary would be 1 million plus the (12 bonus)

                            2022 salary would be 12 million(5 mil guaranteed)

                            2023 salary would be    12 mil (no guarantee)  

That would save you 6 million dollars and lock up a good player for 2 more years. He would do it because he gets a nice raise. Everybody wins.

If the Seahawks do those 3 moves, they would save about 26 million dollars this year and put them about 47 million under the cap. From there they can pay Adams and get that done and still have a good amount of money to fill their priority positions. 

But lets focus on the offense right now and a plan of attack!

Right now you have a 2nd round pick. The 2nd round pick will probably go to a rb. The 4th round pick you can spend in the secondary. The offensive line/Tight end position will be addressed in free agency. 

1. Offensive Line

The offensive line needs to improve, especially at left guard. That is priority #1.The Giants Zeitler, Feliciano or Williams from the Bills or a draft pick would be nice. Maybe big Larry Warford wants to come out of retirement. Some are right guards but you could kick Lewis over to the left side. 

 Center is another position to upgrade. You can go to the Rams and get Blyth, The Falcons Alex Mack can give you a solid 1-2 years, Nick Martin is an upgrade as is Corey Linsey in Green Bay. That would be a major coup!

The current line as it stands is as follows:

LT- Duane Brown can still play

RG- Damien Lewis is decent

RT-ogbehui is servicable

Center and left guard just need a major upgrade in my opinion.

Skills positions!

3. RB- The Seahawks need a rb that is a threat as a wr. Carlos Hyde isn't that, Carson isn't that and teams didn't pay much attention the rb's in the passing game. Watch the Rams game, they rarely even noticed the rb. This is the NFL, you need some noticeable players in the passing game. 

4. WR#3- Imagine the Seahawks signed Antonio Brown last year. With Metcalf and Lockett getting numerous double teams, they really never had a #3 wr. Every coverage was rolled Metcalf's way. Lockett and Metcalf got all the attention. Adding a 3rd wr is a must. You can do this in a fiscally responsible way. 

 Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, AJ Green on a team friendly deal  would be nice additions or Perriman from the Jets. Lower cost than some of the big names out there. 

5. A premium Tight End- Greg Olsen is ok but he is gone. Let's get a dynamic tight end in the equation. Cook, Rudolph, Henry or Everett would be easy additions and not cost you a ton.You may be able to trade for an OJ Howard or Cameron Brate from Tamba Bay or Njoku from Cleveland. There are plenty of tight end options out there. Just don't bring back Jimmy Graham.

 Dissly is right now the only tight end around. 

The Seahawks make these changes, the offense will take off and Russell Wilson will be great again! They will be a super bowl contender in no time.

I look forward to see what the Seahawks do in the offseason.!!

Here comes the Jets- The road to the Playoffs and future success!

 First things first, the Jets made a great hire and got one of the best coaches in the game when hiring Robert Saleh. He will be an asset in so many phases and make the Jets a playoff team and championship contender.

1. They will play solid football with a strong emphasis on the under center run game. Expect wide zone, toss, play action, boot, jet motions and other motions to take advantage of numbers and situations. But understand the Jets will have a top 10 run game.

Here is the 49ers wide zone scheme. I've covered their toss scheme in detail in my other posts but expect a heavy wide zone, toss system with play action off of it. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1fVitTdihg

2. As covered in some of my other posts, Saleh is a great defensive mind. He will bring a very solid defense with him. He always has a top 10 defense and this year they kept them in every game. You watch the Cowboy game and some others, the defense was good enough to win 10 games. He adjusted his scheme once he lost 2 pass rushers and this impressed me the most. The last 4 games of the year teams were 8 of 45 on 3rd downs of 3+. That is OUTSTANDING. 

3. He will recruit players to come with him. He has that Rex personality where people gravitate to him. Richard Sherman already said he's coming, who even at his age will be an asset on the defensive side. Sherman is one of the smartest players in the game. That's just one of the many players lining up to come to NY.

4. He will run his schemes to fit his players. He won't force Darnold or whomever his qb is to be something he is not. His offensive system is very qb friendly. Not too many hot reads and sight adjustments and allows a qb to play fast, make their progressions  and be comfortable. It is a mobile system which plays to Darnold's strengths but Lafleur knows his stuff. He has the right pedigree.

Now the roster decisions. 

The best thing about this year is the Jets have 70+ million dollars. The other nice things is that free agency ties up with the Jets needs. Wr-deep #1 class, 

JD made some moves on the offensive line last year. But other than McGovern, they could easily cut any of the signings without a major cap hit. Lewis, Van Roten and Fant can be cut without major damage to the cap. 

Going into this season the Jets have a real solid foundation with 70 million in cap space, 2 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick. That allows you to sign 2 premium free agents, 4-6 starters, and also add in other spots. Also, gives them great options in the trade market if they decide keeping Darnold is the way to go.  Lastly, they can save another 8.8 million if they cut Fant (8 mil) left guard lewis(5.8 mil) and right guard Van Roten (3 million). On the defensive side, Mayes is the biggest question in Free agency and a player that should be brought back for the right price. But, that being said there are good safeties out their if the price isn't right. 

As we all know the biggest decision is to what to do at #2. Many of the fair weather fans watch 10 snaps of a qb and think wow, I want this guy. It doesn't work that way in the NFL. You need your qb to have great arm strength, accuracy,  pocket awareness, and most importantly good decision making skills. The mental part is also key, but I think Lafleur is not the Bruce Ariens with 150 plays each week.  The NFL game happens so much faster than a college game and with all the man free you better be accurate and be a good decision maker.  

THE QB DILEMNA WILL KEEP JOE DOUGLAS UP AT NIGHT! IT ALL STARTS WITH THE QB SITUATION FOR THE JETS. 

Here are 3 scenarios 

Option #1 at #2

Draft a qb. Everyone loves Wilson and Fields but that's a starting over approach. Usually rookie qb's have a tough time going to the playoffs. If you take one, do you trade Darnold? Maybe you don't have to. What about keeping the 2. Possibly. Why not have a qb competition but I don't know if you need that controversy in year 1. 

 Logic tells you if they do take a qb they will  trade Darnold and do you bring in a veteran qb and let him learn. Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton,  Cam Newton, Jameis Winston(You see where this is going) Seems to be the thought process.

Option #2

Trade for Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz is talented and more talented than Darnold, Fields and Wilson. Joe Douglas knows this being a football mind but does he roll the dice. You probably don't have to give up the bank to get him. Wentz salary is more friendly to a team that  trades for him. He is a franchise qb, are the others?

In the 3 prior years:

2019 27 TD 7  INT      93.1 RATING

2018 21 TD  7 INT    102.2 RATING

2017 33 TD  7 INT    101.9 RATING 

He has something to prove. He's been in the MVP talk. Sam has not. Joe Douglas is bold. Personally, Wentz is better than Darnold, Fields and Wilson. Hands down. Joe could renegotiate a good portion that the Eagles can't and make it work for a reduced cap hit.

Then at #2,  the Jets could draft Sewell, the best prospect in the draft, or trade down. To me getting your bookend tackles for the next 10 years would be ideal. I could even live with him at guard and signing Thuney. Really its Thuney and a bunch of other guys at guard. Don't be surprised if Patriots resign him because the guard market is limited. 

Imagine this offensive line.

Becton,Thuney,McGovern,Sewell, Fant could be a very good line. Fant is another possible cut candidate. so we shall see.  

Option #3

Trade the pick and go with Darnold. The possibilities are endless and the Jets have the money to spend. Trade down and you can get a really good wr/fs/guard in the draft and probably a starter from another team. Just a matter of who you target. An edge de or guard are a necessity. 

Lets look at the current roster. They have 5 major spots to consider on offense

The starters on offense right now:

Starters                        backups

QB Darnold                ? Flacco , or  a new qb??
WR2- Mims
WR3-Crowder            Berrios
WR1-?  
TE- Herndon
TE 2- Griffin
LT- Becton             Edoga is solid backup at both tackle spots
LG-?/Lewis             Alex Lewis is a 5.8 million savings if cut  
C-McGovern           McDermott or cut him and bring back Eflein and resign him for flexibility)
RG-?                      Van Roten is a 3 million savings if cut 
RT-Fant                  Fant   is a 8 million savings if cut 

RB-                                Perine

RB2-                              Johnson

BIGGEST ? LEWIS AND VAN ROTEN. FANT WAS AVERAGE FOR HIS FIRST YEAR AT TACKLE BUT HAS UPSIDE. Eflein is a free agent who id like to keep

Offensive Free agents are as follows:

RB Josh Adams  C Josh Andrews           TE Daniel Brown 
G Pat Elflein,   QB Joe Flacco             RB Frank Gore
WR Breshad Perriman   WR Jeff Smith WR Vyncint Smith

The only 2 I would bring back are Elflein to give depth at center and guard and possibly Flacco. Time will tell. 

Now, how do you fill those spots:

There is depth at certain positions in free agency (cb, for example and lack of depth at others) but right now we are focusing on the offensive side of the ball.

Free agency 

#1 wr: No matter who plays qb this is a must. This  I anticipate happening as this was the weakest part of the offense. They need a #1 wr. This the Jets will spend on. That I can assure you. 

There are several good options here:

1. Allen Robinson-Chicago
2. Marvin Jones-Detroit

3. Shuster-Steelers

4. Chris Godwin-Bucs

5. Corey Davis- Ten

6. Curtis Samuel-Carolina

7. Keelan Cole-Jax 

8. TY Hilton-Colts 

Keep your eyes on Michael Thomas and Julio Jones either being cut or traded. Especially Thomas

#2 Left guard and or right guard: You could keep Lewis and only sign one guard but the Jets had some issues with him last year. He's the best of the guards they currently have. Is he better than the 2nd tier options in free agency or possibly a late first round/2nd round draft pick. The only real blue chip players at guard in free agency are Scherff and Thuney. So, the market will be high for their services. WFT will probably sign Scherff. That is why I thought maybe going Sewell and moving him to left guard is a possibility. It all depends on what you do with the qb situation and if you draft one. Joe Feliciano and Lane Taylor are other options I would consider. Again if you sign one and draft another, your O line situation is solid. 

#3 Rb .You need 2, 1 you may be able to get in free agency and the other in the draft. Definitely need a better passing game option for 3rd down. Drake, Carson, David Johnson are a few options. Not breaking the bank. 

Well this completed part 1.

Defense

Well, 1st the Jets are running out of a 4-3 defense next year and will use that exclusively.

You will see true 4-3 vs 21 teams which is 2 backs and a tight end, 4-2 with a nickel lb vs 11 personnel. The nickel is more a safety type than a cb type so keep that in mind. They also run  

some 4 man front with a dime package on 3rd downs.

So fitting those pieces into place is important. 

Overall, looking at the roster, they need an edge defender, 2nd inside lb opposite Mosely as Hewitt is a free agent and a revamped secondary. The secondary is in shambles but the good news is that their are plenty of db's in free agency.

On the defensive line, the Jets are solid inside but need a dominant edge rusher. Expect them to make a splash on the edge in free agency. Everyone returns except Basham so their should be some competition. Really need 1 edge defender.

Possible targets:

Reddick-Arizona

Lloyd-Rams

Miller-Broncos

Dupree-Steelers

Judon-Ravens

Barrett-Bucs

The Jets depth on the defensive line returning for next year include: 

 Starters                       Backups

DT Williams

NG  Fatukasi                Franklin Meyers

DE  Andersen               Philips
DE  ?                            Nathan Shepherd          
Solid  group inside  but they need some speed on the edge. 

Linebackers

Mosely can be a force and Hewitt is a solid player. Langhi came on and made the most of his opportunities. Will be interesting to see how they approach it. Nickel LB?SS is another question mark

LB 1       Mosely                   

LB 2        ?                            Hewitt may return(he's a good player)

4-3 LB 3    Langi RFA  is the 3rd lb possibility and should be back, restricted free agent)

Nickel LB  ?

THE SECONDARY

There are some holes to fill in the secondary. McDougald and Maye are free agents and they didn't get good play out of their secondary this year so upgrades are in order.  Several of Saleh's former players are available (Sherman, Verrett, Witherspoon) should i am curious how that plays out. Expect Sherman and hopefully they resign Maye,  or  Johnson from the Rams. Maybe go with the draft for the other safety position. Plenty of cb depth in free agency. 

        starter                            back up

CB      ?                                 Lamar Jackson/Bless Austine
CB      ?                                 Bryce Hall
FS       ?                                  Elijah Campbell
SS       ?                                   Ash Davis
DIME  ?

NY JETS FREE AGENTS 

Slot CB Brian Poole  30  best  free agent option, don't know if he fits the scheme. 

LB Jordan Jenkins 28    OLB 

LB Tarell Bashman, 27   decent player possible return
CB Kyron Brown, 25
DT Trevon Coley, 27
S Matthias Farley, 29
LB Bryce Hager, 29
LB Neville Hewitt, 28   had a good year 102 tackles may be retainted
CB Bennett Jackson, 30
LB Harvey Langi, 29    played solid, probable  return  RFA
LB Frankie Luvu, 25       gave jets some depth 
CB Arthur Maulet, 28
S Marcus Maye, 27      best safety, could return.
S Bradley McDougald, 31
LB Patrick Onwuasor, 29

Overall, the Jets are in good shape with plenty of cap space and should have a great offseason. 
CB Brain Poole, 29

Bears Offseason personnel analysis: Road to the Playoffs

 The Bears fought and clawed their way to an 8-8 season.  They are on the verge of a challenging offseason as they have some key question marks at their top 2 positions on offense, qb and wr. 

As I see it, they have 5 key questions that need to be addressed heading into 2021. 

Right Now the salary cap stands at $176 million barring any changes or negotiations. That's a problem for the bears. They have $190 million in guarantees and are 14 million over the cap.

So let's start with the cap savings and get that number down, then attack free agency:

1. The first casualty is Robert Massie. I dont want to cut him but the Bears have other options. They will save a base of 7.9 million when cut. Update:The Bears have cut Massie. They brought back Ilfedi and will explore other options.

2. Cut Jimmie Graham. Cole Kmet will only get better and cheaper options available in free agency .Base salary savings  for 2021 is 6.9 million.  Update: The Bears still have Jimmie Graham on the roster

3. Buster Skrine was a bust. He struggled all year.  Rougly a 4.5 million savings. A position the Bears have to get better at.  They are solid on the outside but inside struggle quite a bit. Update:The Bears have cut Buster Skrine, leaving a void at slot cb.

4. Restructure Akeim Nicks contract. The Bears need to get that cap number down. He is an integral part of the defense. Give him a 3 year 30 mil deal with 9 million bonus. Will cut the 2021 hit to 4 million and save 6 million dollars.  Update:The Bears have decided to bring him back but not restructured his contract.

5. Cut Miller 1.2 million savings.

6.  Restructure Kyle Fuller, His signing bonus of 4.5 million already counts to this year but he is due a 9 mil base deal. He is a solid player and if you could give him a 3 year 30 million dollar deal with a 9 million signing bonus, you could give him a 1 million base this year. In simple terms that move would give him a million raise and save you 5 million in space. Rather than restructure fuller they cut him. saving 9 million for the upcoming year. 

Overall these 6 moves would save you approximately 31 million dollars. There are possible others but these seem to make the most sense. 

Let's say you make a few other moves and save roughly $5 million.Trevathan may be a possible cut.

Now. that brings you down to about $154 million dollars. That leaves you 22 million to play with roughly for 4-5 positions through the draft and free agency.. It is feasible as you can sign 4 players necessary to get you over the top and add the other 2 in the draft. Qb has to be free agency as is 1 of the wr positions. The other 4 (te, safety, nickel and the other wr position could be a draft/free agent option)

How does this get done with only 22 million. You have to give these players decent bonuses and from their give them low first year salaries. That is the recipe used by many programs and the Bears have always spent the money .

You just need to decide  how you are going to attack free agency and tie it into the draft.

Position priorities
#1 qb- That's the ultimate decision.You have a solid backup in Foles but the starting qb is the major issue and the problem is who are you getting that is better than Foles. The free agent market is Winston, Brissett, Dalton, Newton, Hill, Rivers. Fitzpatrick, Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, AJ Mc Carron and Kizer. Not exactly top 10 qbs in the league. The qb situation needs to get resolved. Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles and then some interesting possible free agents. Do you keep Mitch and at what price. Franchise him for 20 million which I don''t think happens or try to go after one of the others on the list. Who are you outbidding for Mitch? Yourselves. 

Update: The Bears make a lateral move and sign Andy Dalton. This is a safe move but not the move everyone wanted them to make. They didn't hit on Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson which would have given them a franchise qb.

The Bears have drafted Fields. Now, they need to find a taker for Foles and eat some of the contract. 

#2 WR- I know it's probably #1 on the list. If you don't retain Robinson, you better get a good #1 wr and a good #3 wr. Mooney is a solid #2 but Wims, Miller and Ridley aren't cutting it.  Godwin, Hilton ,Schuster, Marvin Jones.  #3 options, Watkins, Perriman, Snead, Stills are all options. Very deep free agent  wr class and should be able to get 2 good wr.  You need 2 wr and breaking the bank may not be the best option.

Update:The Bears have made a lateral move  at wr. They have Mooney and possibly Robinson depending on the contract he signs.. Marques Goodwin has been brought in to compete as the 3rd wr. Average  wr and possession wr who missed 2020 because of covid.  

#3 Tackle- You have to cut Massie and Ilfedi is a free agent. Do you bring him back? You have a LT-Leno, who may also be gone and inside you have good depth with Coward,mustipher , Whitehair, Daniels and I expect   RG Bars will be retained. You have 5 guys to play 3 spots. Who plays right tackle? You could move Bars there which wouldn't be a bad option. You will have to pay for a good right tackle  in free agency which you are trying to avoid. That's why it is always easy to cut a Massie but not always that easy to find a Massie. 

Update: The Bears have drafted Teven Jenkins. He will start at either tackle now that Massie and Leno have been cut. A much new revamped offensive line. Elijah Wilkinson, Jenkins and Ilfeidi will play 2 of the tackle spots.

Update: Whose playing right tackle? Still a question mark at that position. My opinion is Ilfedi is a backup. We can't start thinking we don't have voids at right tackle and center. Mustipher is ok there and whitehair and Daniels are really good guards. But, do you move one to center and start Bars. At least there is flexibility inside but I don't like the right tackle position.

#4 Nickel cb- The Bears got exposed in nickel and dime this year. Adams and the Packers exploited this matchup and this was the achiles heal of the defense all year. The Bears need a solid nickel. This is a free agent acquisition because of the depth in free agency at cb. Think the market will allow you to get one in the $3-5 mil price range. Update: The Bears are still in need of a nickel and dime db. This is still an area of weakness. With cutting Fuller, that leaves another void at cb.

#5 Safety- Gipson is scheduled to hit free agency. He is a solid player and will definitely either get a raise or be elsewhere. If you don't sign him, their are good options in free agency and the draft. I would definitely try to resign but getting a safety deep in the first round is usually doable.  Or look at a free agent that's a 3-4 million a year player. Would love John johnson, Neal-Atlanta , Harmon-Detroit or Marcus Maye but don't expect the splash here. Draft seems more realistic. 

update: Desmond Trufant has been signed. Not an upgrade, but an update

#6 TE- You need another tight end for 12 personnel. This shouldn't be  a position you have to break the bank for. Always players out there who are good blockers and adequate in the pass game. This can also be done in the 2nd-3rd round of the draft. Free agent options include Hollister-Sea, Everett-Rams,Kroft-Bills, Eifert Jax an McDonald. Not really in the market for a high priced tight end and their will be some cuts to keep an eye on. Brate-TB, Cleveland njoku and a few others.

Update:  The Bears have signed no tight end and have decided to keep Jimmy Graham. 

#7.lb-Smith is solid but Trevathan you may need to replace. He’s weak in man coverage and often attacked underneath. Had a poor year.  He's  a mismatch in coverage. 

Overall:

Defense

Defensive Line:

Getting Eddie Goldman back to play alongside Hicks, Mack,Quinn and  Bilal Nichols is very good. That gives you a solid front 5 for 4 spots. Could probably add a depth player on the cheap or through the draft. Adding Attachou to the DE rotation is a good move

Group rating: B+

LB

Trevathian and Smith are good at linebacker. Trevathian is not a good cover guy and needs to get off the field in those true passing situations.

Group Rating: B

Secondary

They need to improve at nickel and decide what to do at the other free safety position. Johnson is the other only good cb on the roster and they don't have a safety. Trufant was awful last year and shouldn't be starting. 

They don't have a starting safety and cb right now and nickel and dime are a mess. Johnson and Jackson are solid but the other 4 spots are dismal.(nickel and dime included) 

Update: They resigned Gipson so safety is solidified. Still need a cb and nickel.

Group rating:   C+   Safety B,    Cb  C 

Overall the defense should be intact.

Offense

Qb  Dalton, Fields  and Foles are adequate system qb's. They can get you to the playoffs with the right supporting cast.

Group rating: B-

WR

 Robinson is a #1 wr and Mooney is a solid #2. They need a solid #3 in 11 personnel. That is what is lacking. Need an upgrade over Miller.

Group rating: C

RB  Montgomery and Cohen are good backs

Group Rating: B 

Offensive Line

We covered this above but you play a dangerous game going into the season without a right tackle. I also think they are average inside and center could use an upgrade. The Bears had 4 good games on offense, all against the worst defenses in the league. When facing active defensive lines with quality players, they got outmatched at times.  Need to improve at Center and Guard.

After the moves in the draft, I still see it as a weak unit. Not loving the group but time will tell. 

Grade: C

TE

I think Kmet is going to be an excellent player in this league. Jimmy Graham is one dimenshional and is not a very good run blocker. I also think at times he is detrimental to the offense because of his route running. Think they should make an upgrade there for a better blocking te and use Kmet off the ball. 

Grade B-

Overall:
With a few upgrades at cb and wr, the bears are close to being a playoff team. The Bears have several positions they need to get better at to be a playoff team. WR, TE stand out on offense, Cb, and nickel on the defensive side. I hope to see some major upgrades in the near future. 

Ryan Pace did a nice job in the draft but will need to make a few upgrades to get the team to the next level.