How the Bucs defended the packers week 6 and playoff recap.

Playoffs 

The Bucs beat the Packers in the playoffs and are going to the Super Bowl. One of the reasons was the play of their defense. They sacked Rodgers 5 times  and had 8 qb hits on the day and more importantly held them to 2 field goals when the Packers had 1st and goal inside the 10. One was a mysterious 4th and goal late.  

 Rodgers went 33 of 48 for 346 yards with three touchdowns and one interception on the day.  They were also 16 for 67 in the run game but got away from the run game and threw the ball 75% of the time. Also, the biggest stat was the turnover the Bucs caused on Aaron Jones which led to a score. Their physical style helped get them the win and a trip to the super bowl.

Let's look at some plays on the goal line which really cost them. . 

They had an easy touchdown down 14-7 but the packers bring edge pressure and forces a bad throw. Devonte Adams is wide open and they should have tied the game up. The center slides left but the tackle doesn't take the blitzing lb so he's right in the qb face. He's forced to throw hot and they pass up an easy touchdown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On 3rd and goal, Adams runs a great route against double bracket coverage, but Rodgers double pumps and that 1 second delay forces Adams out of the endzone. Should have been another touchdown. Poor execution by Rodgers as you can see when Adams is on the goalline he's open. That 1 second delay causes Adams to run out of room, field goal.

 

 

On 1st and goal with 2 minutes to go, They run an rpo but the wr runs the wrong route. Looks like the Bucs go cover 4 to the strong side. If the wr goes vertical instead of running the slant, it may be a touchdown. 

Rodgers thinks seem, wr runs slant, big miss with 2 minutes to go.

The Packers miss a big opportunity as their was a window open but the miscommunication on the route.

Week 6 recap

  The Bucs did something most teams stuggle with  when they play the packers

The Bucs got home with 5 man pressures. Although, Rodgers  usually excels in this department, the Bucs got home most of the day and flustered Rodgers quite a bit. 

The Bucs did a great job of that vs the pack.  In the Bucs game, packers went up 10-0, and early the Bucs didn’t send 5 at all. After that they brought 5 or more 8 times , and the Packers were  1 of 8 for 4 yards, 2 sacks , 2 int, 1 hurry and the ball was out quick! The Bucs won 38-10. They shut the Packers down. They mixed it up nicely with some sim pressures and some other unique blitzes.  

The key matchup will be Carlton Davis vs. Devonte Adams. Last game Davis travelled with Adams and covered him on the outside but didn't cover him when he was in the slot. Also, last week against the Saints he was matched up against Michael Thomas quite a bit. 

Here on a big 3rd and 5 they put Davis on Michael Thomas and he makes a great play on the goal line in man to man defense. They try a back shoulder fade to Michael Thomas and Davis plays it real well. Pass incomplete and they settle for the field goal. Davis is a very underrated player.

Bucs Defense

The Packers will probably put Adams in the slot because the like the matchup of Adams vs Bunting more. Expect that to happen.  Last week Bunting played well against an 80% Michael Thomas. Here he breaks under the route and makes a nice play. Again Davis travels but doesn't necessarily matchup with Thomas.  

They send 5 get pressure and great man coverage and they get the pick!

Interception and return to the 1 yard line

 

Again, in the first meeting the pressure on Rodgers was immense after the first quarter

Here's some clips from the Bucs bringing 6,technically 5 with the add in. and putting their best db on Adams. The Bucs ran a large amount of 5 man games but have much better pass rush than the Bucs. Here below they send 5 and ad in with the 6th rusher. 

 The Bucs did a great job on this blitz below.    Here they send the sam and nickel  on the bottom of he screen go cover 2 and Rodgers throws the pick 6. Rodgers rushes as he feels pressure and the cb jumps the route. Nice blitz concept vs condensed set. 

The Endzone view:

You see the nickel and the sam coming off the edge and one rusher comes free. 

Rodgers rushes the throw and throws an interception

Bucs version of the 2 under 3 deep from double A gap mug look. Love Bowles and how he dials up pressure. The good thing about this one is its 3rd and 10. Great call and down and distance to run it against. Some teams will play it safe on 3rd and 10 but the Bucs show and bring pressure. 

(they just drop JPP too but it is really a nice exotic pressure)

Other things Bowles did is he doubled Adams at times .

Below you see the Defensive back playing trail technique because he knows he has safety help over the top on 3rd and 10 .

Rodgers  scrambles and dumps it off but the downfield coverage was excellent.

Another thing Bowles did was matchup with his cb to the side Adams went to. 

Bowles also put #24 Carlton Davis to Adams side most of the game.  Here it is 3rd and 3 and they try to hit Adams on the slant. The 6 man pressure gets home and they get the interception. Nice Coverage by Davis 

The pressure forces the quick throw and the Bucs get the deflection and interception. 

3rd and 3 1st half Bucs up 14-10

The Bucs run a 6 man cover 0 concept with the free safety dropping to be a rat defender. The back stays in so the rush is 6 man. Big sack on Rodgers. Great cover 0 design which leads to the sack. 

The pressure 

The Bucs cause pressure by going odd with Barrett as the mike. That causes the slide as the Bucs try to get the guard and tackle on Barrett rather than leave a rb on him. The rb has to take David off the edge and he gets home as does Barrett up the middle.

Later up 31-10 the Bucs bring more pressure. On 1st and 10, the Packers come out in 12. Bowles dials up a nice 5 man 3 under 3 deep pressure. The crossing route gets open late but the pressure gets home.

Here was the last sack of the night and the end to Rodgers in the 38-10 game. The Bucs send 6 and play man and the pressure gets home.

But that being said,

The Packers had some opportunities and had some good plays built in.

Clip #1 they run the wheel off Jet motion (ball is late) 

Clip #2 they run 4 verts and the tight end is wide open vs 5 man pressure. Rodgers just missed the 2nd throw.

These are just some of the things to expect when they play this weekend.

How do the Packers counter. 

#1 free release the back more at times and motion him out of the backfield. Force the Bucs to adjust with a lb and take some of the heat off. 

#2 Rodgers has to hit a few 4 verts , wheel routes and zone beaters.

#3 Match Adams up inside, the Bucs inside slot is not as good as Davis on the outside

#4 Establish the run game and go more play action out of 12 personnel. Think they have to take some shots in 12 and hit the deep crossing dover routes against the Packers 5 man 3 under 3 deep.

#5 Do a better job with their screen game. Get some screens involved and hit some quick screens. The packers were so aggressive last game on screens they may be open to fake wr screen and hit #2 vertical.

Don't be surprised if you see that.

Curious to see the adjustments the Packers make with Adams and in the passing game. 

Will they run more screens and free release the back? Will you see Adams in the slot more.

Time will tell.

Hope you enjoyed the article.

Here comes the Jets- The road to the Playoffs and future success!

 First things first, the Jets made a great hire and got one of the best coaches in the game when hiring Robert Saleh. He will be an asset in so many phases and make the Jets a playoff team and championship contender.

1. They will play solid football with a strong emphasis on the under center run game. Expect wide zone, toss, play action, boot, jet motions and other motions to take advantage of numbers and situations. But understand the Jets will have a top 10 run game.

Here is the 49ers wide zone scheme. I've covered their toss scheme in detail in my other posts but expect a heavy wide zone, toss system with play action off of it. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1fVitTdihg

2. As covered in some of my other posts, Saleh is a great defensive mind. He will bring a very solid defense with him. He always has a top 10 defense and this year they kept them in every game. You watch the Cowboy game and some others, the defense was good enough to win 10 games. He adjusted his scheme once he lost 2 pass rushers and this impressed me the most. The last 4 games of the year teams were 8 of 45 on 3rd downs of 3+. That is OUTSTANDING. 

3. He will recruit players to come with him. He has that Rex personality where people gravitate to him. Richard Sherman already said he's coming, who even at his age will be an asset on the defensive side. Sherman is one of the smartest players in the game. That's just one of the many players lining up to come to NY.

4. He will run his schemes to fit his players. He won't force Darnold or whomever his qb is to be something he is not. His offensive system is very qb friendly. Not too many hot reads and sight adjustments and allows a qb to play fast, make their progressions  and be comfortable. It is a mobile system which plays to Darnold's strengths but Lafleur knows his stuff. He has the right pedigree.

Now the roster decisions. 

The best thing about this year is the Jets have 70+ million dollars. The other nice things is that free agency ties up with the Jets needs. Wr-deep #1 class, 

JD made some moves on the offensive line last year. But other than McGovern, they could easily cut any of the signings without a major cap hit. Lewis, Van Roten and Fant can be cut without major damage to the cap. 

Going into this season the Jets have a real solid foundation with 70 million in cap space, 2 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick. That allows you to sign 2 premium free agents, 4-6 starters, and also add in other spots. Also, gives them great options in the trade market if they decide keeping Darnold is the way to go.  Lastly, they can save another 8.8 million if they cut Fant (8 mil) left guard lewis(5.8 mil) and right guard Van Roten (3 million). On the defensive side, Mayes is the biggest question in Free agency and a player that should be brought back for the right price. But, that being said there are good safeties out their if the price isn't right. 

As we all know the biggest decision is to what to do at #2. Many of the fair weather fans watch 10 snaps of a qb and think wow, I want this guy. It doesn't work that way in the NFL. You need your qb to have great arm strength, accuracy,  pocket awareness, and most importantly good decision making skills. The mental part is also key, but I think Lafleur is not the Bruce Ariens with 150 plays each week.  The NFL game happens so much faster than a college game and with all the man free you better be accurate and be a good decision maker.  

THE QB DILEMNA WILL KEEP JOE DOUGLAS UP AT NIGHT! IT ALL STARTS WITH THE QB SITUATION FOR THE JETS. 

Here are 3 scenarios 

Option #1 at #2

Draft a qb. Everyone loves Wilson and Fields but that's a starting over approach. Usually rookie qb's have a tough time going to the playoffs. If you take one, do you trade Darnold? Maybe you don't have to. What about keeping the 2. Possibly. Why not have a qb competition but I don't know if you need that controversy in year 1. 

 Logic tells you if they do take a qb they will  trade Darnold and do you bring in a veteran qb and let him learn. Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton,  Cam Newton, Jameis Winston(You see where this is going) Seems to be the thought process.

Option #2

Trade for Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz is talented and more talented than Darnold, Fields and Wilson. Joe Douglas knows this being a football mind but does he roll the dice. You probably don't have to give up the bank to get him. Wentz salary is more friendly to a team that  trades for him. He is a franchise qb, are the others?

In the 3 prior years:

2019 27 TD 7  INT      93.1 RATING

2018 21 TD  7 INT    102.2 RATING

2017 33 TD  7 INT    101.9 RATING 

He has something to prove. He's been in the MVP talk. Sam has not. Joe Douglas is bold. Personally, Wentz is better than Darnold, Fields and Wilson. Hands down. Joe could renegotiate a good portion that the Eagles can't and make it work for a reduced cap hit.

Then at #2,  the Jets could draft Sewell, the best prospect in the draft, or trade down. To me getting your bookend tackles for the next 10 years would be ideal. I could even live with him at guard and signing Thuney. Really its Thuney and a bunch of other guys at guard. Don't be surprised if Patriots resign him because the guard market is limited. 

Imagine this offensive line.

Becton,Thuney,McGovern,Sewell, Fant could be a very good line. Fant is another possible cut candidate. so we shall see.  

Option #3

Trade the pick and go with Darnold. The possibilities are endless and the Jets have the money to spend. Trade down and you can get a really good wr/fs/guard in the draft and probably a starter from another team. Just a matter of who you target. An edge de or guard are a necessity. 

Lets look at the current roster. They have 5 major spots to consider on offense

The starters on offense right now:

Starters                        backups

QB Darnold                ? Flacco , or  a new qb??
WR2- Mims
WR3-Crowder            Berrios
WR1-?  
TE- Herndon
TE 2- Griffin
LT- Becton             Edoga is solid backup at both tackle spots
LG-?/Lewis             Alex Lewis is a 5.8 million savings if cut  
C-McGovern           McDermott or cut him and bring back Eflein and resign him for flexibility)
RG-?                      Van Roten is a 3 million savings if cut 
RT-Fant                  Fant   is a 8 million savings if cut 

RB-                                Perine

RB2-                              Johnson

BIGGEST ? LEWIS AND VAN ROTEN. FANT WAS AVERAGE FOR HIS FIRST YEAR AT TACKLE BUT HAS UPSIDE. Eflein is a free agent who id like to keep

Offensive Free agents are as follows:

RB Josh Adams  C Josh Andrews           TE Daniel Brown 
G Pat Elflein,   QB Joe Flacco             RB Frank Gore
WR Breshad Perriman   WR Jeff Smith WR Vyncint Smith

The only 2 I would bring back are Elflein to give depth at center and guard and possibly Flacco. Time will tell. 

Now, how do you fill those spots:

There is depth at certain positions in free agency (cb, for example and lack of depth at others) but right now we are focusing on the offensive side of the ball.

Free agency 

#1 wr: No matter who plays qb this is a must. This  I anticipate happening as this was the weakest part of the offense. They need a #1 wr. This the Jets will spend on. That I can assure you. 

There are several good options here:

1. Allen Robinson-Chicago
2. Marvin Jones-Detroit

3. Shuster-Steelers

4. Chris Godwin-Bucs

5. Corey Davis- Ten

6. Curtis Samuel-Carolina

7. Keelan Cole-Jax 

8. TY Hilton-Colts 

Keep your eyes on Michael Thomas and Julio Jones either being cut or traded. Especially Thomas

#2 Left guard and or right guard: You could keep Lewis and only sign one guard but the Jets had some issues with him last year. He's the best of the guards they currently have. Is he better than the 2nd tier options in free agency or possibly a late first round/2nd round draft pick. The only real blue chip players at guard in free agency are Scherff and Thuney. So, the market will be high for their services. WFT will probably sign Scherff. That is why I thought maybe going Sewell and moving him to left guard is a possibility. It all depends on what you do with the qb situation and if you draft one. Joe Feliciano and Lane Taylor are other options I would consider. Again if you sign one and draft another, your O line situation is solid. 

#3 Rb .You need 2, 1 you may be able to get in free agency and the other in the draft. Definitely need a better passing game option for 3rd down. Drake, Carson, David Johnson are a few options. Not breaking the bank. 

Well this completed part 1.

Defense

Well, 1st the Jets are running out of a 4-3 defense next year and will use that exclusively.

You will see true 4-3 vs 21 teams which is 2 backs and a tight end, 4-2 with a nickel lb vs 11 personnel. The nickel is more a safety type than a cb type so keep that in mind. They also run  

some 4 man front with a dime package on 3rd downs.

So fitting those pieces into place is important. 

Overall, looking at the roster, they need an edge defender, 2nd inside lb opposite Mosely as Hewitt is a free agent and a revamped secondary. The secondary is in shambles but the good news is that their are plenty of db's in free agency.

On the defensive line, the Jets are solid inside but need a dominant edge rusher. Expect them to make a splash on the edge in free agency. Everyone returns except Basham so their should be some competition. Really need 1 edge defender.

Possible targets:

Reddick-Arizona

Lloyd-Rams

Miller-Broncos

Dupree-Steelers

Judon-Ravens

Barrett-Bucs

The Jets depth on the defensive line returning for next year include: 

 Starters                       Backups

DT Williams

NG  Fatukasi                Franklin Meyers

DE  Andersen               Philips
DE  ?                            Nathan Shepherd          
Solid  group inside  but they need some speed on the edge. 

Linebackers

Mosely can be a force and Hewitt is a solid player. Langhi came on and made the most of his opportunities. Will be interesting to see how they approach it. Nickel LB?SS is another question mark

LB 1       Mosely                   

LB 2        ?                            Hewitt may return(he's a good player)

4-3 LB 3    Langi RFA  is the 3rd lb possibility and should be back, restricted free agent)

Nickel LB  ?

THE SECONDARY

There are some holes to fill in the secondary. McDougald and Maye are free agents and they didn't get good play out of their secondary this year so upgrades are in order.  Several of Saleh's former players are available (Sherman, Verrett, Witherspoon) should i am curious how that plays out. Expect Sherman and hopefully they resign Maye,  or  Johnson from the Rams. Maybe go with the draft for the other safety position. Plenty of cb depth in free agency. 

        starter                            back up

CB      ?                                 Lamar Jackson/Bless Austine
CB      ?                                 Bryce Hall
FS       ?                                  Elijah Campbell
SS       ?                                   Ash Davis
DIME  ?

NY JETS FREE AGENTS 

Slot CB Brian Poole  30  best  free agent option, don't know if he fits the scheme. 

LB Jordan Jenkins 28    OLB 

LB Tarell Bashman, 27   decent player possible return
CB Kyron Brown, 25
DT Trevon Coley, 27
S Matthias Farley, 29
LB Bryce Hager, 29
LB Neville Hewitt, 28   had a good year 102 tackles may be retainted
CB Bennett Jackson, 30
LB Harvey Langi, 29    played solid, probable  return  RFA
LB Frankie Luvu, 25       gave jets some depth 
CB Arthur Maulet, 28
S Marcus Maye, 27      best safety, could return.
S Bradley McDougald, 31
LB Patrick Onwuasor, 29

Overall, the Jets are in good shape with plenty of cap space and should have a great offseason. 
CB Brain Poole, 29

Bears Offseason personnel analysis: Road to the Playoffs

 The Bears fought and clawed their way to an 8-8 season.  They are on the verge of a challenging offseason as they have some key question marks at their top 2 positions on offense, qb and wr. 

As I see it, they have 5 key questions that need to be addressed heading into 2021. 

Right Now the salary cap stands at $176 million barring any changes or negotiations. That's a problem for the bears. They have $190 million in guarantees and are 14 million over the cap.

So let's start with the cap savings and get that number down, then attack free agency:

1. The first casualty is Robert Massie. I dont want to cut him but the Bears have other options. They will save a base of 7.9 million when cut. Update:The Bears have cut Massie. They brought back Ilfedi and will explore other options.

2. Cut Jimmie Graham. Cole Kmet will only get better and cheaper options available in free agency .Base salary savings  for 2021 is 6.9 million.  Update: The Bears still have Jimmie Graham on the roster

3. Buster Skrine was a bust. He struggled all year.  Rougly a 4.5 million savings. A position the Bears have to get better at.  They are solid on the outside but inside struggle quite a bit. Update:The Bears have cut Buster Skrine, leaving a void at slot cb.

4. Restructure Akeim Nicks contract. The Bears need to get that cap number down. He is an integral part of the defense. Give him a 3 year 30 mil deal with 9 million bonus. Will cut the 2021 hit to 4 million and save 6 million dollars.  Update:The Bears have decided to bring him back but not restructured his contract.

5. Cut Miller 1.2 million savings.

6.  Restructure Kyle Fuller, His signing bonus of 4.5 million already counts to this year but he is due a 9 mil base deal. He is a solid player and if you could give him a 3 year 30 million dollar deal with a 9 million signing bonus, you could give him a 1 million base this year. In simple terms that move would give him a million raise and save you 5 million in space. Rather than restructure fuller they cut him. saving 9 million for the upcoming year. 

Overall these 6 moves would save you approximately 31 million dollars. There are possible others but these seem to make the most sense. 

Let's say you make a few other moves and save roughly $5 million.Trevathan may be a possible cut.

Now. that brings you down to about $154 million dollars. That leaves you 22 million to play with roughly for 4-5 positions through the draft and free agency.. It is feasible as you can sign 4 players necessary to get you over the top and add the other 2 in the draft. Qb has to be free agency as is 1 of the wr positions. The other 4 (te, safety, nickel and the other wr position could be a draft/free agent option)

How does this get done with only 22 million. You have to give these players decent bonuses and from their give them low first year salaries. That is the recipe used by many programs and the Bears have always spent the money .

You just need to decide  how you are going to attack free agency and tie it into the draft.

Position priorities
#1 qb- That's the ultimate decision.You have a solid backup in Foles but the starting qb is the major issue and the problem is who are you getting that is better than Foles. The free agent market is Winston, Brissett, Dalton, Newton, Hill, Rivers. Fitzpatrick, Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, AJ Mc Carron and Kizer. Not exactly top 10 qbs in the league. The qb situation needs to get resolved. Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles and then some interesting possible free agents. Do you keep Mitch and at what price. Franchise him for 20 million which I don''t think happens or try to go after one of the others on the list. Who are you outbidding for Mitch? Yourselves. 

Update: The Bears make a lateral move and sign Andy Dalton. This is a safe move but not the move everyone wanted them to make. They didn't hit on Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson which would have given them a franchise qb.

The Bears have drafted Fields. Now, they need to find a taker for Foles and eat some of the contract. 

#2 WR- I know it's probably #1 on the list. If you don't retain Robinson, you better get a good #1 wr and a good #3 wr. Mooney is a solid #2 but Wims, Miller and Ridley aren't cutting it.  Godwin, Hilton ,Schuster, Marvin Jones.  #3 options, Watkins, Perriman, Snead, Stills are all options. Very deep free agent  wr class and should be able to get 2 good wr.  You need 2 wr and breaking the bank may not be the best option.

Update:The Bears have made a lateral move  at wr. They have Mooney and possibly Robinson depending on the contract he signs.. Marques Goodwin has been brought in to compete as the 3rd wr. Average  wr and possession wr who missed 2020 because of covid.  

#3 Tackle- You have to cut Massie and Ilfedi is a free agent. Do you bring him back? You have a LT-Leno, who may also be gone and inside you have good depth with Coward,mustipher , Whitehair, Daniels and I expect   RG Bars will be retained. You have 5 guys to play 3 spots. Who plays right tackle? You could move Bars there which wouldn't be a bad option. You will have to pay for a good right tackle  in free agency which you are trying to avoid. That's why it is always easy to cut a Massie but not always that easy to find a Massie. 

Update: The Bears have drafted Teven Jenkins. He will start at either tackle now that Massie and Leno have been cut. A much new revamped offensive line. Elijah Wilkinson, Jenkins and Ilfeidi will play 2 of the tackle spots.

Update: Whose playing right tackle? Still a question mark at that position. My opinion is Ilfedi is a backup. We can't start thinking we don't have voids at right tackle and center. Mustipher is ok there and whitehair and Daniels are really good guards. But, do you move one to center and start Bars. At least there is flexibility inside but I don't like the right tackle position.

#4 Nickel cb- The Bears got exposed in nickel and dime this year. Adams and the Packers exploited this matchup and this was the achiles heal of the defense all year. The Bears need a solid nickel. This is a free agent acquisition because of the depth in free agency at cb. Think the market will allow you to get one in the $3-5 mil price range. Update: The Bears are still in need of a nickel and dime db. This is still an area of weakness. With cutting Fuller, that leaves another void at cb.

#5 Safety- Gipson is scheduled to hit free agency. He is a solid player and will definitely either get a raise or be elsewhere. If you don't sign him, their are good options in free agency and the draft. I would definitely try to resign but getting a safety deep in the first round is usually doable.  Or look at a free agent that's a 3-4 million a year player. Would love John johnson, Neal-Atlanta , Harmon-Detroit or Marcus Maye but don't expect the splash here. Draft seems more realistic. 

update: Desmond Trufant has been signed. Not an upgrade, but an update

#6 TE- You need another tight end for 12 personnel. This shouldn't be  a position you have to break the bank for. Always players out there who are good blockers and adequate in the pass game. This can also be done in the 2nd-3rd round of the draft. Free agent options include Hollister-Sea, Everett-Rams,Kroft-Bills, Eifert Jax an McDonald. Not really in the market for a high priced tight end and their will be some cuts to keep an eye on. Brate-TB, Cleveland njoku and a few others.

Update:  The Bears have signed no tight end and have decided to keep Jimmy Graham. 

#7.lb-Smith is solid but Trevathan you may need to replace. He’s weak in man coverage and often attacked underneath. Had a poor year.  He's  a mismatch in coverage. 

Overall:

Defense

Defensive Line:

Getting Eddie Goldman back to play alongside Hicks, Mack,Quinn and  Bilal Nichols is very good. That gives you a solid front 5 for 4 spots. Could probably add a depth player on the cheap or through the draft. Adding Attachou to the DE rotation is a good move

Group rating: B+

LB

Trevathian and Smith are good at linebacker. Trevathian is not a good cover guy and needs to get off the field in those true passing situations.

Group Rating: B

Secondary

They need to improve at nickel and decide what to do at the other free safety position. Johnson is the other only good cb on the roster and they don't have a safety. Trufant was awful last year and shouldn't be starting. 

They don't have a starting safety and cb right now and nickel and dime are a mess. Johnson and Jackson are solid but the other 4 spots are dismal.(nickel and dime included) 

Update: They resigned Gipson so safety is solidified. Still need a cb and nickel.

Group rating:   C+   Safety B,    Cb  C 

Overall the defense should be intact.

Offense

Qb  Dalton, Fields  and Foles are adequate system qb's. They can get you to the playoffs with the right supporting cast.

Group rating: B-

WR

 Robinson is a #1 wr and Mooney is a solid #2. They need a solid #3 in 11 personnel. That is what is lacking. Need an upgrade over Miller.

Group rating: C

RB  Montgomery and Cohen are good backs

Group Rating: B 

Offensive Line

We covered this above but you play a dangerous game going into the season without a right tackle. I also think they are average inside and center could use an upgrade. The Bears had 4 good games on offense, all against the worst defenses in the league. When facing active defensive lines with quality players, they got outmatched at times.  Need to improve at Center and Guard.

After the moves in the draft, I still see it as a weak unit. Not loving the group but time will tell. 

Grade: C

TE

I think Kmet is going to be an excellent player in this league. Jimmy Graham is one dimenshional and is not a very good run blocker. I also think at times he is detrimental to the offense because of his route running. Think they should make an upgrade there for a better blocking te and use Kmet off the ball. 

Grade B-

Overall:
With a few upgrades at cb and wr, the bears are close to being a playoff team. The Bears have several positions they need to get better at to be a playoff team. WR, TE stand out on offense, Cb, and nickel on the defensive side. I hope to see some major upgrades in the near future. 

Ryan Pace did a nice job in the draft but will need to make a few upgrades to get the team to the next level. 

Texans Offseason Analysis-Rebuilding the Houston Texans into a Super Bowl Contender

The Road to the Super Bowl

By Jeff Koutsantanou

NFL/College Football Analyst

Here come the Texans!!

The Texans had great momentum going into the offseason in 2020. They lost to the Chiefs after a great playoff win  and a tough hard losss to the Chiefs. But, the major pieces were in place, A top young qb, top 5 wr and a very good young left tackle. On the defensive side, JJ Watt a top 10 defensive lineman, Zach Cunningam and Marcelus Wiley.

But, that all changed in the blink of an eye, when Bill O'Brien traded D'Andre Hopkins and in essence changed the whole complexion of the football team.

The Texans not only traded their best wr, they also didn't resign  arguably their 2nd best offensive player last year, Carlos Hyde, who was a perfect fit for the power running game. CarlosHyde did some really good things last year. The trade of Hopkins also led to overcompensating for the trade and signing  Radall Cobb and trading  for Cooks, but not upgrading the secondary and pass rush on  the defensive side of the ball, rb and guard altogether.

To be great as an organization,  you need to ask yourself every year is this team and organization the gold standard for the NFL. Are we the number 1 team on paper going in? Can we compete for a championship every year. Are we the best in our division 1st, and then how do we match up with the other top 5 teams in our conference. Going into this season, you had the 3rd best roster in your division. That's a problem.

 As a gm you need to do the following:

1. Look at every match up personnel wise as you see it. Your skill guys compared to the rest of your division. Your line compared to their line. Your lb's compared to their db's  Then look at how you match up against the other side of the ball.  This is a match up league. Do we have the roster to compete with the top teams in our division and compete for a super bowl.   For example, whose covering Kelce and their number 1 receiver. Who is our nickel slot corner that gives us the versatility to blitz, also a good cover guy but  also make tackles and play the run. 

2. You need to look at every personnel grouping and ask do these guys fit our system.  What type of players do we need to surround Deshaun with to fit our system. This is for each personnel grouping

On offense, 11, 12, and 21 you name it what are our groupings and are those players good enough to win with.Do we have the pieces in place to run our system? For example, the Texans are a power, gap running team.  Do we not have a power back on our roster? Do they have the weapons to run 12 personnel and 11 personnel packages. 

On defense, Base personnel, nickel, dime, red zone and goal line. Can we generate a pass rush without blitzing? Can we defend the run in our base package? When we go  from 4-2 to 3-4 to dime and   make those changes and not become a weaker unit.

3. How is your red zone offense. Do we have players that excel in the red zone? Don't have much size on this team and throwing to short guys in the red zone is difficult at times.

4 The Texans were  a bottom tier defense. That's not the coordinators fault. Romeo and Weaver will do what they can to make it better, but you got some serious question marks. Run defense and pass rush is not very good. Defensive line only has 1 legitimate starter in their base 3-4. When the shift to a 4-2 front that goes to 2 with Wiley. They have 1 very good inside linebacker Cunningham and a below average player one dimensional player in McKinney. The secondary had 3 players who are playing decent football Roby, Murray and Reid but their nickel and sub packages struggled. Vernon Hargreaves was a major problem and is struggling big time and will against good #2 wr. He had a target on his back.  He plays hard but is limited. 

What could they have done in the PAST and saved the owner some $$$$:

   

Past problems in depth:

1. Problem #1 was that he was also the head coach, but more importantly the offensive coordinator. He focused his off season on really resigning Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil. The problem was that when he traded for Tunsil, you basically made him the highest paid player in the league. When you trade for stars , you will overpay because they hold all the leverage. You have to sign him our you look like a fool. Tunsil got paid

2. Problem #2- They had no power running back on the roster .Carlos Hyde really fit what the Texans do on offense. He is a  yards after contact back and the Texans are a power, gap scheme. If you watched the Texans last year, he got them those tough yards and really ran the power schemes weill. He was a good fit. With DJ and DJ they are more of a perimeter run wide zone team but that the next issue. I don't think the average fan realizes how good Carlos Hyde was in this offense. 2 scat backs who fill the same niche didntcut it. 

3. Problem #3- The Texans are very unathletic at guard. Well what does that mean? It’s a speed game and the Texans are limited because of the lack of athleticism provided.  They have one of the best line coaches in the game but the talent is limited inside.The screen game and perimeter run game suffered  as a result. Also, hurts them in protection on the inside when getting teams that isolate their best rusher over the right guard. They need to upgrade at guard.

4. Problem # 4- Tight Ends are not very good on the ball blockers. This really hurts them in the run game. The Texans run some excellent schemes but they get beat at the line of scrimmage too often and really struggled when they try to bring tight ends inside to block linebackers at the next level. If you watch the Steelers game, you will see the weaknesses in that area. They tried to run iso with the h back on the inside linebacker and it didn't go too well.

5. Problem #5 You paif  your 3rd and 4th wr, Cobb and Kenny Stills  a heck of a lot of money to be a 3rd/4th wr. You didn’t  use 10  personnel that often so think about what they could have done at other positions if they cut/traded one of them. Keke Coute, who was always in O'Briens dog house and Carter can be 4th wr options. Coute has the ability. Coulter from Rhode Island is a young talent and hope he gets healthy. He will be a very good player down the road.  You Just  dont pay your 3rd and 4th wr starter money!! You over invested in one position after the Hopkins trade, (make up to make your qb happy), forgot about the rest of the team  and lost major draft collateral with the Tunsil and Cooks trade. What happens with Fuller next year? You are  going to pay him $15 million if you keep him.

7. Problem #6 The Defense- Truthfully, this is problem #1. You have a tough situation on the defensive line as discussed a little earlier.  JJ watt is your only player who is above average in the 3-4 scheme on the Defensive Line. When you go 4-2, that number becomes 2 with Wiley. The edge olb in the 3-4 opposite Wiley is a problem. Omenihu is a pass rusher who cant play inside and Blaylock was a disappontment.. The other guys are just average backups. Cole, Dunn, and Blaylock. The Texans should have cut Stills in camp and used that 7 million to sign some veteran defensive rotational lineman. That would have helped them tremendously

PLAY IT FORWARD: YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE PAST, LEARN FROM IT!

THE TEXANS Path to success!! Super Bowl in 2022!

The key to success is manipulating the salary cap. The great programs do it. You need to restructure, pay some bonuses and have a sold approach year to year. 

How to turn The Texans  around moving forward in priority order:

There are smart ways to save money:

1. Restructure JJ Watt, 3 year deal with 18 mil up front should do it.  1 mil salary 2021- 7 mil against the gap.  Salary cap savings for 2021:10 million dollars.

2. Release Randall Cobb 2021: $10. 6 million savings 

3. Release McKinney 2021:  8.5 million savings 

4. Release Zach Fulton 2021: 4 million savings 

5. Release David Johnson: 6.9 million savings

6. Cut Brandon Dunn: 4.2 million savings

Thats $40 million off the top, with another approximate $36 mil coming off the books due to free agency. 

Notable Players you will be losing  as free agents in 2021 that contribute to the $36 million savings:

WR-Stills, Fuller (resign fuller). Carter  QB-Mc Carron.  OL-Johnson Qvale

LB- Scarlett, Cole, Adams. DB-Hargreaves, Conley, Thomas and Gaines

Now, lets start with the Additions to make:

We need to upgrade at various positions but most importantly the 3 positions  that must be upgraded and will cost the most are edge, dl and cb.

But with the salary cap you can sign these players and space out the salaries because of the cap. You can sign 3 players and be smart with the bonus and guarantees. With little draft resources you need to be great in free agency.  

I break free agency into 2 phases:

PHASE 1-All pro caliber additions

 1. Edge player in the 3-4 or 4-2 scheme. This has to be an all pro caliber type player. 12-15mil type. Clowney? His value is way down and can get him for a reasonable price. Other uptions include Judon, Dupree and Ngahoe from the Ravens.  

Counting on Clowney this year?

 Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

2. CB-Need to sign a #1 cb 10  mil type player to upgrade the cb position. Plenty of depth in free agency at cb.

If you play your cards right, player 1 and 2 combined will cost you a 20 million dollar cap hit at worst in 2021. big bonus, little contract in 2021. 

3. WR- Resign Will Fuller. 4 year deal 60 mil. with 20 signing bonus. If you don't,   other options may be Allen Robinson, Marvin Jone,  Julio Jones but you must get this type of caliber player.

Fuller rough estimate  cap hit: 

year 1 year 6 mil  1 mil contract (20 bonus)   year 2    9 mil.  year 3   15   year 4 15 

Phase 2 free agency -quality starters

After this the rest of the additions are important but not going to cost you the bank: Blue collar additions that will make us better.

1. Interior DT/5 tech de. You can get a good veteran for 3 million cap cost 2021  

2. Guard- a quality guard will be 4 million cap cost 2021  in free agency

3. Mike LB- Another inside linebacker will cost 6  mil cap cost  for a solid ilb 

4.  Slot CB- 5  mil cap cost 

5. Back up qb- 3 mil

6. sign a db safety for Nickel and dime personnel groupings. -3 mil 

7 sign a blocking tight end 2 mil

8. sign a power running back-4 mil

This is a start and would have to be further evaluated based on the additions the other teams in your division make.  This is the foundation to competing and I truly believe these moves would make the Texans a contender.

Based on my projections:

Money saved by renegotiating and off the books:   $74 million

Money spent: $56 million roughly on free agency in 2021

Players left  under contract 2021.  roughly $148 million. with 35 players.

Right now that puts us about 20 million over  the cap $176 million figure,  but with creative restructuring, it could get done!

The Houston Texans can be great. They have some key pieces in place and can really be a top notch football program in 2021 and the years that follow. I hope you enjoyed my research and will be pursuing an NFL Executive Career when I retire from teaching!

GO TEXANS!!!