The Bears fought and clawed their way to an 8-8 season. They are on the verge of a challenging offseason as they have some key question marks at their top 2 positions on offense, qb and wr.
As I see it, they have 5 key questions that need to be addressed heading into 2021.
Right Now the salary cap stands at $176 million barring any changes or negotiations. That's a problem for the bears. They have $190 million in guarantees and are 14 million over the cap.
So let's start with the cap savings and get that number down, then attack free agency:
1. The first casualty is Robert Massie. I dont want to cut him but the Bears have other options. They will save a base of 7.9 million when cut. Update:The Bears have cut Massie. They brought back Ilfedi and will explore other options.
2. Cut Jimmie Graham. Cole Kmet will only get better and cheaper options available in free agency .Base salary savings for 2021 is 6.9 million. Update: The Bears still have Jimmie Graham on the roster
3. Buster Skrine was a bust. He struggled all year. Rougly a 4.5 million savings. A position the Bears have to get better at. They are solid on the outside but inside struggle quite a bit. Update:The Bears have cut Buster Skrine, leaving a void at slot cb.
4. Restructure Akeim Nicks contract. The Bears need to get that cap number down. He is an integral part of the defense. Give him a 3 year 30 mil deal with 9 million bonus. Will cut the 2021 hit to 4 million and save 6 million dollars. Update:The Bears have decided to bring him back but not restructured his contract.
5. Cut Miller 1.2 million savings.
6. Restructure Kyle Fuller, His signing bonus of 4.5 million already counts to this year but he is due a 9 mil base deal. He is a solid player and if you could give him a 3 year 30 million dollar deal with a 9 million signing bonus, you could give him a 1 million base this year. In simple terms that move would give him a million raise and save you 5 million in space. Rather than restructure fuller they cut him. saving 9 million for the upcoming year.
Overall these 6 moves would save you approximately 31 million dollars. There are possible others but these seem to make the most sense.
Let's say you make a few other moves and save roughly $5 million.Trevathan may be a possible cut.
Now. that brings you down to about $154 million dollars. That leaves you 22 million to play with roughly for 4-5 positions through the draft and free agency.. It is feasible as you can sign 4 players necessary to get you over the top and add the other 2 in the draft. Qb has to be free agency as is 1 of the wr positions. The other 4 (te, safety, nickel and the other wr position could be a draft/free agent option)
How does this get done with only 22 million. You have to give these players decent bonuses and from their give them low first year salaries. That is the recipe used by many programs and the Bears have always spent the money .
You just need to decide how you are going to attack free agency and tie it into the draft.
Position priorities
#1 qb- That's the ultimate decision.You have a solid backup in Foles but the starting qb is the major issue and the problem is who are you getting that is better than Foles. The free agent market is Winston, Brissett, Dalton, Newton, Hill, Rivers. Fitzpatrick, Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, AJ Mc Carron and Kizer. Not exactly top 10 qbs in the league. The qb situation needs to get resolved. Mitch Trubisky, Nick Foles and then some interesting possible free agents. Do you keep Mitch and at what price. Franchise him for 20 million which I don''t think happens or try to go after one of the others on the list. Who are you outbidding for Mitch? Yourselves.
Update: The Bears make a lateral move and sign Andy Dalton. This is a safe move but not the move everyone wanted them to make. They didn't hit on Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson which would have given them a franchise qb.
The Bears have drafted Fields. Now, they need to find a taker for Foles and eat some of the contract.
#2 WR- I know it's probably #1 on the list. If you don't retain Robinson, you better get a good #1 wr and a good #3 wr. Mooney is a solid #2 but Wims, Miller and Ridley aren't cutting it. Godwin, Hilton ,Schuster, Marvin Jones. #3 options, Watkins, Perriman, Snead, Stills are all options. Very deep free agent wr class and should be able to get 2 good wr. You need 2 wr and breaking the bank may not be the best option.
Update:The Bears have made a lateral move at wr. They have Mooney and possibly Robinson depending on the contract he signs.. Marques Goodwin has been brought in to compete as the 3rd wr. Average wr and possession wr who missed 2020 because of covid.
#3 Tackle- You have to cut Massie and Ilfedi is a free agent. Do you bring him back? You have a LT-Leno, who may also be gone and inside you have good depth with Coward,mustipher , Whitehair, Daniels and I expect RG Bars will be retained. You have 5 guys to play 3 spots. Who plays right tackle? You could move Bars there which wouldn't be a bad option. You will have to pay for a good right tackle in free agency which you are trying to avoid. That's why it is always easy to cut a Massie but not always that easy to find a Massie.
Update: The Bears have drafted Teven Jenkins. He will start at either tackle now that Massie and Leno have been cut. A much new revamped offensive line. Elijah Wilkinson, Jenkins and Ilfeidi will play 2 of the tackle spots.
Update: Whose playing right tackle? Still a question mark at that position. My opinion is Ilfedi is a backup. We can't start thinking we don't have voids at right tackle and center. Mustipher is ok there and whitehair and Daniels are really good guards. But, do you move one to center and start Bars. At least there is flexibility inside but I don't like the right tackle position.
#4 Nickel cb- The Bears got exposed in nickel and dime this year. Adams and the Packers exploited this matchup and this was the achiles heal of the defense all year. The Bears need a solid nickel. This is a free agent acquisition because of the depth in free agency at cb. Think the market will allow you to get one in the $3-5 mil price range. Update: The Bears are still in need of a nickel and dime db. This is still an area of weakness. With cutting Fuller, that leaves another void at cb.
#5 Safety- Gipson is scheduled to hit free agency. He is a solid player and will definitely either get a raise or be elsewhere. If you don't sign him, their are good options in free agency and the draft. I would definitely try to resign but getting a safety deep in the first round is usually doable. Or look at a free agent that's a 3-4 million a year player. Would love John johnson, Neal-Atlanta , Harmon-Detroit or Marcus Maye but don't expect the splash here. Draft seems more realistic.
update: Desmond Trufant has been signed. Not an upgrade, but an update
#6 TE- You need another tight end for 12 personnel. This shouldn't be a position you have to break the bank for. Always players out there who are good blockers and adequate in the pass game. This can also be done in the 2nd-3rd round of the draft. Free agent options include Hollister-Sea, Everett-Rams,Kroft-Bills, Eifert Jax an McDonald. Not really in the market for a high priced tight end and their will be some cuts to keep an eye on. Brate-TB, Cleveland njoku and a few others.
Update: The Bears have signed no tight end and have decided to keep Jimmy Graham.
#7.lb-Smith is solid but Trevathan you may need to replace. He’s weak in man coverage and often attacked underneath. Had a poor year. He's a mismatch in coverage.
Overall:
Defense
Defensive Line:
Getting Eddie Goldman back to play alongside Hicks, Mack,Quinn and Bilal Nichols is very good. That gives you a solid front 5 for 4 spots. Could probably add a depth player on the cheap or through the draft. Adding Attachou to the DE rotation is a good move
Group rating: B+
LB
Trevathian and Smith are good at linebacker. Trevathian is not a good cover guy and needs to get off the field in those true passing situations.
Group Rating: B
Secondary
They need to improve at nickel and decide what to do at the other free safety position. Johnson is the other only good cb on the roster and they don't have a safety. Trufant was awful last year and shouldn't be starting.
They don't have a starting safety and cb right now and nickel and dime are a mess. Johnson and Jackson are solid but the other 4 spots are dismal.(nickel and dime included)
Update: They resigned Gipson so safety is solidified. Still need a cb and nickel.
Group rating: C+ Safety B, Cb C
Overall the defense should be intact.
Offense
Qb Dalton, Fields and Foles are adequate system qb's. They can get you to the playoffs with the right supporting cast.
Group rating: B-
WR
Robinson is a #1 wr and Mooney is a solid #2. They need a solid #3 in 11 personnel. That is what is lacking. Need an upgrade over Miller.
Group rating: C
RB Montgomery and Cohen are good backs
Group Rating: B
Offensive Line
We covered this above but you play a dangerous game going into the season without a right tackle. I also think they are average inside and center could use an upgrade. The Bears had 4 good games on offense, all against the worst defenses in the league. When facing active defensive lines with quality players, they got outmatched at times. Need to improve at Center and Guard.
After the moves in the draft, I still see it as a weak unit. Not loving the group but time will tell.
Grade: C
TE
I think Kmet is going to be an excellent player in this league. Jimmy Graham is one dimenshional and is not a very good run blocker. I also think at times he is detrimental to the offense because of his route running. Think they should make an upgrade there for a better blocking te and use Kmet off the ball.
Grade B-
Overall:
With a few upgrades at cb and wr, the bears are close to being a playoff team. The Bears have several positions they need to get better at to be a playoff team. WR, TE stand out on offense, Cb, and nickel on the defensive side. I hope to see some major upgrades in the near future.
Ryan Pace did a nice job in the draft but will need to make a few upgrades to get the team to the next level.
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