Carson Wentz analysis-Why he will excel at qb in the Colts Offense

                                        

Carson Wentz had a very tough year in Philadelphia.

This was mostly due to playing with a very banged up offensive line, his relationship with his head coach, his decision to pack on extra weight and the limited options he had at wr.This has been a problem the past 2 years.  Last year alone, he was the most sacked qb in the league at over 4 sacks a game. That is not going to lead to being highly efficient when you are constantly being hit. He needed a fresh start and is getting it with Frank Reich and his Colts staff.

But it doesn't discount the work in did the last 3 years in the league. His stats are up there with every elite qb in the league over that span. I was most impressed about his work in 2019 when his top wr had 43 catches. He threw for 4000 yards without a wr gaining 500 yards on he season. That has never been done before. 

In 2019, he was ranked 10th in the league, 2018 he was 14th and in 2017  he was ranked #5 and was considered as league MVP that year. He has skills.

Caeer stats

Year	Team	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	Rating
2020	Eagles	57.4	2,620	16	15	72.8
2019	Eagles	63.9	4,039	27	7	93.1
2018	Eagles	69.6	3,074	21	7	102.2
2017	Eagles	60.2	3,296	33	7	101.9
2016	Eagles	62.4	3,782	16	14	79.3
Career		62.7	16,811	113	50	89.2

Why will Carson be successful in Indianapolis

1. The Colts have one of the better offensive lines in the league. They will get a good left tackle to replace Costanzo and be ready to go with a line of   LG Nelson, C Kelly,    RG Glowinski,    RT Braden Smith. They are a very good unit.

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2. The Colts run the football with success. This will open play action windows for Wentz to throw the football. They have great backs in Tayler and Hines.

3. The Colts will utilize their skill players and he will have some options. Zach Pascal and Michael Pittman are rising young players and Hines and Taylor are good wr out of the backfield. They will get a 3rd wr via free agency or the draft. They may need a tight end as well but it's still early in free agency.

4. Carson understands the offense like the back of his hand. He knows the major route concepts. He ran the same system his whole career and the terminology will be very similar.

5. Wentz is a quick decision maker and accurate passer. He can throw wr open. Those 2 skills are the 

               

  most useful for being an elite qb. His skill set is tremendous. He also has the arm strength people covet 

and can run when needed. Lastly, he is strong under pressure and willing to take a hit. 

6. Toughness- Just remember all the hits he took last year and how about 2017 when he threw that big touchdown pass on 4th and 1 with a torn ACL Or maybe when he played with a torn rotator cuff. He gave the Eagles everything and is very tough football player. 

Here are some examples of some of the things mentioned above:

Wentz knows all the reads in the offense. The Eagles run 5 major concepts and the Colts run the same ones. 4 verts, mesh, sail route, dover and the snag route are all 

Sail with shallow cross concept

Here's a common sail variation out of 2x2, rather than release the rb to the flat, the Eagles run the backside wr on the shallow concept with the sail route to the front side

 out to the crossing route. He didn't try to fore it in downfield.

In play action when the tight end is attached, notice the tight end release is inside to work back out. The Eagles run a 3 man concept. Wentz makes his progression and throws a great pass.

Here  Wentz is throwing the Dover concept, a staple in Frank Reich's offense

Here is Wentz throwing the 4 vert concept, another staple in Frank Reichs offense. You can see the accuracy, ball placement, arm strength and all the intangibles you need to be successful.

The next route concept is the mesh route. ANother staple of Carson Wentz. Here you can see the throws 

he makes under the mesh concept

Lastly, his knowledge of the sail route concepts.

Another great part of what Wentz can throw. Another staple of the Colts offense and great route concept.  

This is an qb friendly, easy system, very easy reads and with Wentz skill set, expect great production from him. Don't be surprised if you see the Colts in the Super Bowl in 2022.

Rex Ryan 3rd down package- Exotic blitz and pressure looks

 I went back to Rex Ryan and his exotic pressure looks back when he was a coordinator in 2015 and 2016. 
He had some great pressure concepts that really caused some confusion. One of the innovators of his time, Rex was one of the best at bringing pressure on 3rd down.

One thing about Rex is that he could always dial up some pressure.

Here's a 3rd and 10 3-3 personnel,  6 man pressure with cover 1

Rex brings 6 with man free principles from his ameba look and the sam off the edge

Here's the endzone look

It goes off Frank Gore's hands and they have to punt.

3rd and 8

Rex is in his base 4-3 personnel and showing pressure. 
He brings 7 with someone with some peel rules. The DE williams comes from the lb spot. 

He has williams a def lineman, blitzing from depth. 

Lucky for LUck he throws behind the wr or its a pick 6 the other way.

On 3rd and 10. Colts are in 11 personnel. The Bills run an overload pressure. They force the Colts to keep 7 in again and run a 3 man pattern.

Defense    front      pressure                      coverage 
dime       3-2           2 off the edge                combo(man on the outside)

On a key 3rd and 5

The Eagles decide to go 5 man protection and the Bills bring 6. This causes an issue in protection as the ILB comes free as the guard takes the safety. Also, the Eagles are free releasing the back so are one man less short. Luckily Bradford sees it and throws the slant vs it.

The defense is dime with 2 lb and 3 def lineman in the game.  They overload the left side but bring the pressure on the right side

Protection wise, you want the tackle on 94 so you have to decide what you want to do inside. Do you slide? 1/2 man slide it. Well they free release it. The Left guard takes the lb.

3rd and 6

spread

Jags run slant out combos to both sides.

Out of dime , the Bills bring a 6 man pressure. Both lb to the one side and the safety away from the back. They play man free with the concept. The Jaguars pick it up and run a 4 man slide with the back coming across. The pressure forces a quick poor throw and the Bills get off the field.

This just a sneak preview of some of the more pressures Rex has showed over the years. Great stuff from a  great football mind.

Hello Russell Wilson- Make The Seattle Seahawks Great Again!

 Russell Wilson threw for 400 yards , 40 td's and 13 interceptions in 2020 and did some outstanding things with limited help from his offensive line throughout the season. He played well at times and is still an elite qb. That being said the Seahawks have to get better and protect their best player. 

He is on pace to be the most sacked qb in the NFL and may pass Brett Favre in that category. He was sacked 48 times in 2020, but more alarming was the amount of hits he took. Russell Wilson has been sacked 394 times in 9 seasons. That is a very high number for an elite qb and they are averaging 43.77 per year.

What happened this year was he got happy feet with all the pressure and starting getting away from his reads and progressions. He really struggled in that area and it caused him to look to run or should I say escape more. That really hurt them in the passing game. 

 So, understandably he is frustrated and the Seahawks need to get him the help he needs. One solution is to run the ball more, but you also need to be effective when running the ball. The 2 go hand in hand, just ask Bears fans! 

In 3 Rams games this year, he was sacked or hit a whopping 41 times. That is a very high rate and unacceptable for an elite qb. You can see my whole analysis of that 3 game series below:

https://coachkoufootball.blogspot.com/2020/11/how-rams-shutdown-seahawks-offense-with.html

The beauty of the Hawks roster  is the positions they need can be fit into the salary cap because I don't think they are extensively high paying positions based on the players available. The Seahawks made some moves and cut Dunlap and Greg Olsen  already, a 14 million savings. They are currently about 21 million under but can put themselves 47 million under. 

Here's 3 other saving moves:

3 contracts that could be restructured are:

Russell Wilson- Put your money where your mouth is. You are making 19 million in 2021. This could easily be restructured by giving him a 1 year extension in 2024 for lets say 2 year 80 million with a 30 million signing bonus. You think thats alot but if you give that to him and make his salary 1 , 1 million dollars that would split up the bonus of 30 million  over 5 years , it give the Hawks great flexibility. That would be a 12 million dollar savings year 1. 

        2021 1 million salary (3o million paid in bonus)

        2022  19 million

        2023  22 million

        2024   25 million

       2025   25 million

#2 person in the list that  you need to restructure Wagner. That is a big deal. He could save you about 10 million dollars. How? He is due 29 million, 13 million this year. If you gave him another year extension with lets say a 2 year extension with a 15 million signing bonus. That would be broken over 21-22-23. Give him a 1 million contract this year and everybody wins. That would save the Hawks about 8 million this year

Tyler Locket:

Give him a 2 year extension at 24million with lets say 12 million signing bonus and  5 million guaranteed in 22:

that would mean 2021- salary would be 1 million plus the (12 bonus)

                            2022 salary would be 12 million(5 mil guaranteed)

                            2023 salary would be    12 mil (no guarantee)  

That would save you 6 million dollars and lock up a good player for 2 more years. He would do it because he gets a nice raise. Everybody wins.

If the Seahawks do those 3 moves, they would save about 26 million dollars this year and put them about 47 million under the cap. From there they can pay Adams and get that done and still have a good amount of money to fill their priority positions. 

But lets focus on the offense right now and a plan of attack!

Right now you have a 2nd round pick. The 2nd round pick will probably go to a rb. The 4th round pick you can spend in the secondary. The offensive line/Tight end position will be addressed in free agency. 

1. Offensive Line

The offensive line needs to improve, especially at left guard. That is priority #1.The Giants Zeitler, Feliciano or Williams from the Bills or a draft pick would be nice. Maybe big Larry Warford wants to come out of retirement. Some are right guards but you could kick Lewis over to the left side. 

 Center is another position to upgrade. You can go to the Rams and get Blyth, The Falcons Alex Mack can give you a solid 1-2 years, Nick Martin is an upgrade as is Corey Linsey in Green Bay. That would be a major coup!

The current line as it stands is as follows:

LT- Duane Brown can still play

RG- Damien Lewis is decent

RT-ogbehui is servicable

Center and left guard just need a major upgrade in my opinion.

Skills positions!

3. RB- The Seahawks need a rb that is a threat as a wr. Carlos Hyde isn't that, Carson isn't that and teams didn't pay much attention the rb's in the passing game. Watch the Rams game, they rarely even noticed the rb. This is the NFL, you need some noticeable players in the passing game. 

4. WR#3- Imagine the Seahawks signed Antonio Brown last year. With Metcalf and Lockett getting numerous double teams, they really never had a #3 wr. Every coverage was rolled Metcalf's way. Lockett and Metcalf got all the attention. Adding a 3rd wr is a must. You can do this in a fiscally responsible way. 

 Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, AJ Green on a team friendly deal  would be nice additions or Perriman from the Jets. Lower cost than some of the big names out there. 

5. A premium Tight End- Greg Olsen is ok but he is gone. Let's get a dynamic tight end in the equation. Cook, Rudolph, Henry or Everett would be easy additions and not cost you a ton.You may be able to trade for an OJ Howard or Cameron Brate from Tamba Bay or Njoku from Cleveland. There are plenty of tight end options out there. Just don't bring back Jimmy Graham.

 Dissly is right now the only tight end around. 

The Seahawks make these changes, the offense will take off and Russell Wilson will be great again! They will be a super bowl contender in no time.

I look forward to see what the Seahawks do in the offseason.!!