Here's a quick look at the Bills and what deficiencies they have in order to win a super bowl. The Bills have a real good window over the next few years and should be exciting to watch. A couple things stand out from watching them over the year.
The Bills are 3-4 moves from a championship, The players they need to add are lb, edge de, rb and possibly an interior offensive lineman if Feliciano departs during Free agency . I think they have some flaws especially on the defensive side, that get masked with the great play from their offense, especially in the passing game. They just outscore everybody! The pass rush was non existent vs the Chiefs which led to Mahomes having a field day. On the day, they had 1 sack and 3 qb hurries.
On offense, people say the rush offense was poor, was it? Or, was it a matter of the Bills choosing to use more of a short passing game instead early in games. The 2 best rb Singletary and Moss, averaged 4.4 and 4.3 per carry.
Lets look at the defense:
Statistically, they were middle average in most defensive categories and they definitely need to improve against the run and in the pass rush department :
1. They were 20th in yards allowed rushing. This is concerning because they were leading quite a bit in a number of games. Double digit leads throughout many games so this stat is alarming.
2. They were 19th in opponents 3rd down conversion rate.
3. Red zone defense: 20th in red zone points, td's allowed.
4. 14th in points allowed at 23.2 per game
5. 17th in yards allowed per play
6. On a positive note, they were 4th in turnovers which is very important.
Observations:.
They also had some major flaws in their pass defense, which I thought was more underneath at times but also because they couldn't get to the qb with 4 man rushes. 1 sacks and 3 hurries vs a beat up Chiefs line was a problem in the playoffs.
But that being said here's what I see.
Biggest area of weakness:
1. LB- Underneath pass coverage
The Bills were exposed in the offseason, they need to cover better underneath as Kelce and Hill killed them in the playoffs. Edmunds looks lost in pass coverage at times. He needs to improve as a pass defender. As a whole , Hill was 9 for 172(easily could have been 200 with a drop early) and some were not the lb's fault but Kelce was 13 for 118. That's close to 300 yards on the 2 guys in their offense who should be the focus.
2.
Here's another example as the Chiefs go orbit motion and hit the deep crossing route.
DE- Right side of their run defense- Seems like teams made a killing running left vs the Bills, They were really exposed in the run game at times but still managed to make it to the AFC championship.
They lacked major production as a pass rush unit. There leading pass rushers gave them 5 sacks a game, one being AJ Kline who plays linebacker. The inability to get to the passer was evident in the Chiefs game. They got 1 sack and 3 hurries all game. That allowed Kelce and Hill to work the middle of the field and really hur them in pass coverage.
They were 20th in the league against the run. 18th against the pass, so some improved play on the defensive line is a must.
The Patriots ran the ball on them 29 times for 183 yards. The Jets and Dolphins will definitely be better run teams next year. The Bills run defense needs to get better. You saw it in the first Patriots game and here are some examples.
The Patriots really attacked the Bills right side of their defense. Here is counter blocking,example #1 22 yard td.
Counter blocking scheme 2 : 20 yard gain
Here they get hit with toss for a 7 yard gain as they don't set the edge! Just think the run defense needs to get better.
3. RB- The Bills need a little more of a power run game. Their strategy seemed to get up early, then run the football but they need a little more production out of their run game. I don't know if its an inability to run the ball or more of a choice not to? They need a little more balance at times. But, is it a personnel issue or a matter of just not running the ball more.
The Salary Cap:
The Bills are operating under a tight cap as we speak. It looks as if they are around the cap limit for 2021 of 180 million. With that being said, who do you cut and who do you bring back.
John Brown will probably be cut (7 million savings) and they will go with a cheaper 3rd option.
On Defense, expect a defensive lineman to be cut, Mario Addison was average this year. (6 million savings) That will probably be 1 of the moves the Bills make to free up some money for Williams or Feliciano. They need to sign at least 1 of them.
Free agency:
Offense:
TE- They need to add a tight end. Definitely need more production there.
G and Tackle- Feliciano and Daryl Williams, 2 starters need to be resigned or replaced. The problem is the guard market is slim so Feliciano should get about 8-10 million per year. Daryl Williams had an excellent year as well. Those are 2 tough problems to solve.
WR- They can save money by cutting John Brown and adding a #3 option. That's a no brainer. They have 2 studs in Diggs and Beasley.
RB- Can get a cheap one in the draft, why mess with it in free agency.
Defense:
LB- Milano's a free agent and Edmonds can't cover. That is an area of concern for the Bills.
Def Line- They need production on the edge and to improve their pass rush. Defensive line is a concern. I like Hughes but Oliver and Addison have been disappointing. Need to improve at that position.
Safety-Hyde and Poyer are very good.
CB-White is solid and Norman is a free agent so they need to address the one side. Maybe get Norman back on a friendly deal or move on in the draft.
That's really it in a nutshell.
The Bills have some tough decisions to make but can definitely improve with the right decisions in the offseason.
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