Here come the Texans!!
The Texans had great momentum going into the offseason in 2020. They lost to the Chiefs after a great playoff win and a tough hard losss to the Chiefs. But, the major pieces were in place, A top young qb, top 5 wr and a very good young left tackle. On the defensive side, JJ Watt a top 10 defensive lineman, Zach Cunningam and Marcelus Wiley.
But, that all changed in the blink of an eye, when Bill O'Brien traded D'Andre Hopkins and in essence changed the whole complexion of the football team.
The Texans not only traded their best wr, they also didn't resign arguably their 2nd best offensive player last year, Carlos Hyde, who was a perfect fit for the power running game. CarlosHyde did some really good things last year. The trade of Hopkins also led to overcompensating for the trade and signing Radall Cobb and trading for Cooks, but not upgrading the secondary and pass rush on the defensive side of the ball, rb and guard altogether.
To be great as an organization, you need to ask yourself every year is this team and organization the gold standard for the NFL. Are we the number 1 team on paper going in? Can we compete for a championship every year. Are we the best in our division 1st, and then how do we match up with the other top 5 teams in our conference. Going into this season, you had the 3rd best roster in your division. That's a problem.
As a gm you need to do the following:
1. Look at every match up personnel wise as you see it. Your skill guys compared to the rest of your division. Your line compared to their line. Your lb's compared to their db's Then look at how you match up against the other side of the ball. This is a match up league. Do we have the roster to compete with the top teams in our division and compete for a super bowl. For example, whose covering Kelce and their number 1 receiver. Who is our nickel slot corner that gives us the versatility to blitz, also a good cover guy but also make tackles and play the run.
2. You need to look at every personnel grouping and ask do these guys fit our system. What type of players do we need to surround Deshaun with to fit our system. This is for each personnel grouping
On offense, 11, 12, and 21 you name it what are our groupings and are those players good enough to win with.Do we have the pieces in place to run our system? For example, the Texans are a power, gap running team. Do we not have a power back on our roster? Do they have the weapons to run 12 personnel and 11 personnel packages.
On defense, Base personnel, nickel, dime, red zone and goal line. Can we generate a pass rush without blitzing? Can we defend the run in our base package? When we go from 4-2 to 3-4 to dime and make those changes and not become a weaker unit.
3. How is your red zone offense. Do we have players that excel in the red zone? Don't have much size on this team and throwing to short guys in the red zone is difficult at times.
4 The Texans were a bottom tier defense. That's not the coordinators fault. Romeo and Weaver will do what they can to make it better, but you got some serious question marks. Run defense and pass rush is not very good. Defensive line only has 1 legitimate starter in their base 3-4. When the shift to a 4-2 front that goes to 2 with Wiley. They have 1 very good inside linebacker Cunningham and a below average player one dimensional player in McKinney. The secondary had 3 players who are playing decent football Roby, Murray and Reid but their nickel and sub packages struggled. Vernon Hargreaves was a major problem and is struggling big time and will against good #2 wr. He had a target on his back. He plays hard but is limited.
What could they have done in the PAST and saved the owner some $$$$:
Past problems in depth:
1. Problem #1 was that he was also the head coach, but more importantly the offensive coordinator. He focused his off season on really resigning Deshaun Watson and Laremy Tunsil. The problem was that when he traded for Tunsil, you basically made him the highest paid player in the league. When you trade for stars , you will overpay because they hold all the leverage. You have to sign him our you look like a fool. Tunsil got paid
2. Problem #2- They had no power running back on the roster .Carlos Hyde really fit what the Texans do on offense. He is a yards after contact back and the Texans are a power, gap scheme. If you watched the Texans last year, he got them those tough yards and really ran the power schemes weill. He was a good fit. With DJ and DJ they are more of a perimeter run wide zone team but that the next issue. I don't think the average fan realizes how good Carlos Hyde was in this offense. 2 scat backs who fill the same niche didntcut it.
3. Problem #3- The Texans are very unathletic at guard. Well what does that mean? It’s a speed game and the Texans are limited because of the lack of athleticism provided. They have one of the best line coaches in the game but the talent is limited inside.The screen game and perimeter run game suffered as a result. Also, hurts them in protection on the inside when getting teams that isolate their best rusher over the right guard. They need to upgrade at guard.
4. Problem # 4- Tight Ends are not very good on the ball blockers. This really hurts them in the run game. The Texans run some excellent schemes but they get beat at the line of scrimmage too often and really struggled when they try to bring tight ends inside to block linebackers at the next level. If you watch the Steelers game, you will see the weaknesses in that area. They tried to run iso with the h back on the inside linebacker and it didn't go too well.
5. Problem #5 You paif your 3rd and 4th wr, Cobb and Kenny Stills a heck of a lot of money to be a 3rd/4th wr. You didn’t use 10 personnel that often so think about what they could have done at other positions if they cut/traded one of them. Keke Coute, who was always in O'Briens dog house and Carter can be 4th wr options. Coute has the ability. Coulter from Rhode Island is a young talent and hope he gets healthy. He will be a very good player down the road. You Just dont pay your 3rd and 4th wr starter money!! You over invested in one position after the Hopkins trade, (make up to make your qb happy), forgot about the rest of the team and lost major draft collateral with the Tunsil and Cooks trade. What happens with Fuller next year? You are going to pay him $15 million if you keep him.
7. Problem #6 The Defense- Truthfully, this is problem #1. You have a tough situation on the defensive line as discussed a little earlier. JJ watt is your only player who is above average in the 3-4 scheme on the Defensive Line. When you go 4-2, that number becomes 2 with Wiley. The edge olb in the 3-4 opposite Wiley is a problem. Omenihu is a pass rusher who cant play inside and Blaylock was a disappontment.. The other guys are just average backups. Cole, Dunn, and Blaylock. The Texans should have cut Stills in camp and used that 7 million to sign some veteran defensive rotational lineman. That would have helped them tremendously
PLAY IT FORWARD: YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE PAST, LEARN FROM IT!
THE TEXANS Path to success!! Super Bowl in 2022!
The key to success is manipulating the salary cap. The great programs do it. You need to restructure, pay some bonuses and have a sold approach year to year.
How to turn The Texans around moving forward in priority order:
There are smart ways to save money:
1. Restructure JJ Watt, 3 year deal with 18 mil up front should do it. 1 mil salary 2021- 7 mil against the gap. Salary cap savings for 2021:10 million dollars.
2. Release Randall Cobb 2021: $10. 6 million savings
3. Release McKinney 2021: 8.5 million savings
4. Release Zach Fulton 2021: 4 million savings
5. Release David Johnson: 6.9 million savings
6. Cut Brandon Dunn: 4.2 million savings
Thats $40 million off the top, with another approximate $36 mil coming off the books due to free agency.
Notable Players you will be losing as free agents in 2021 that contribute to the $36 million savings:
WR-Stills, Fuller (resign fuller). Carter QB-Mc Carron. OL-Johnson Qvale
LB- Scarlett, Cole, Adams. DB-Hargreaves, Conley, Thomas and Gaines
Now, lets start with the Additions to make:
We need to upgrade at various positions but most importantly the 3 positions that must be upgraded and will cost the most are edge, dl and cb.
But with the salary cap you can sign these players and space out the salaries because of the cap. You can sign 3 players and be smart with the bonus and guarantees. With little draft resources you need to be great in free agency.
I break free agency into 2 phases:
PHASE 1-All pro caliber additions
1. Edge player in the 3-4 or 4-2 scheme. This has to be an all pro caliber type player. 12-15mil type. Clowney? His value is way down and can get him for a reasonable price. Other uptions include Judon, Dupree and Ngahoe from the Ravens.
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2. CB-Need to sign a #1 cb 10 mil type player to upgrade the cb position. Plenty of depth in free agency at cb.
If you play your cards right, player 1 and 2 combined will cost you a 20 million dollar cap hit at worst in 2021. big bonus, little contract in 2021.
3. WR- Resign Will Fuller. 4 year deal 60 mil. with 20 signing bonus. If you don't, other options may be Allen Robinson, Marvin Jone, Julio Jones but you must get this type of caliber player.
Fuller rough estimate cap hit:
year 1 year 6 mil 1 mil contract (20 bonus) year 2 9 mil. year 3 15 year 4 15
Phase 2 free agency -quality starters
After this the rest of the additions are important but not going to cost you the bank: Blue collar additions that will make us better.
1. Interior DT/5 tech de. You can get a good veteran for 3 million cap cost 2021
2. Guard- a quality guard will be 4 million cap cost 2021 in free agency
3. Mike LB- Another inside linebacker will cost 6 mil cap cost for a solid ilb
4. Slot CB- 5 mil cap cost
5. Back up qb- 3 mil
6. sign a db safety for Nickel and dime personnel groupings. -3 mil
7 sign a blocking tight end 2 mil
8. sign a power running back-4 mil
This is a start and would have to be further evaluated based on the additions the other teams in your division make. This is the foundation to competing and I truly believe these moves would make the Texans a contender.
Based on my projections:
Money saved by renegotiating and off the books: $74 million
Money spent: $56 million roughly on free agency in 2021
Players left under contract 2021. roughly $148 million. with 35 players.
Right now that puts us about 20 million over the cap $176 million figure, but with creative restructuring, it could get done!
The Houston Texans can be great. They have some key pieces in place and can really be a top notch football program in 2021 and the years that follow. I hope you enjoyed my research and will be pursuing an NFL Executive Career when I retire from teaching!
GO TEXANS!!!
